How Trump’s Approval Compares With Recent Presidents

Between the start and end of the government shutdown, Trump’s approval dropped from -7 to the new term low of -12.3 net approval in the RealClearPolitics Average. However, slumping approval is common for second-term presidents, and Trump’s numbers actually remain higher than those of several recent predecessors.

Comparing Trump’s approval to Biden’s approval, the numbers are very close. Biden, on Nov. 13 of his first year in office, had an approval rating of 42%. This was down from a net positive approval rating in August of his first term, when the United States chaotically left Afghanistan, resulting in the deaths of 13 service members. Trump’s approval numbers sit at a similar 42.4%.

Compared with recent presidents who reached a second term, Trump is performing even better. On Nov. 13 of the first year of Obama’s second term, he had only 41.3% approval, which had dropped in October after a 2013 government shutdown battle. Bush trailed even more significantly on Nov. 13, 2005, at 38.2%, with a net approval rating of -18.

Trump’s first-term approval rating was also lower than his current approval, at 38.7% on Nov. 13, 2017. Similar to Biden, after Trump’s approval became negative in his first year it never recovered. Other presidents, such as Bush and Obama, dipped into the negatives during their terms but moved back and forth throughout their presidencies.

Trump’s modestly higher approval rating does not appear sufficient to boost Republicans in the midterms. In every midterm election since 2002, when Bush had a historic approval rating that peaked at 89.8% after the Sept. 11 attacks, the party holding the presidency has lost the House.

Since then, the highest approval of a president at the time of the midterms was Obama in 2010, when his approval was around 46% in November, with a net approval of around -3. In the 2010 midterms, Democrats still lost by considerable margins, going from 255 seats to 193, and Republicans jumped to 242, claiming a 49-seat majority. Across the country, Republicans won by 6.8 points in the general congressional ballot.

2026 appears likely to follow the same pattern, with the party out of power positioned to win the House. In the current polling for the 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot, Democrats lead by 4.5 points. If this were the Election Day result, it would constitute a 7.2-point swing from the 2024 election results, giving the House to Democrats.

Therefore, despite Trump’s approval being marginally higher than previous presidents at this point in their second term, unless there is a major turnaround before the midterms Republicans are on the path to lose the House.