2025 Governor and 2026 Senate Races Heat Up: Polls

As the energy around the start of the Trump presidency begins to cool, the primaries for several 2025 governor and 2026 midterm races are starting to heat up. While Democrats are favored in the two competitive 2025 governor races, Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate in the midterms due to their current 53-47 majority.

2025 Governors Races

The two major gubernatorial races in 2025 are in Virginia and New Jersey. While both states leaned Democratic in 2024, off-year election turnout means Republicans still have opportunities.

In Virginia, the Republican hoping to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin is his lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, and the Democratic nominee is former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The latest polls show Spanberger with an early lead – 17 points in the most recent Roanoke College poll and 4 points in a HarrisX poll. In the RealClearPolitics Average for the race, Spanberger leads by 6.6 points, close to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 5.2-point margin in the state in 2024.

The New Jersey governor’s race is still in the primary phase. On the Republican side, Trump has endorsed former New Jersey Rep. Jack Ciattarelli, who has taken the lead and will likely win the primary. The Democratic frontrunner is U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who polled at 28% in the latest survey from Emerson College. Although Harris won the state by 4 points in 2024, Republicans such as Chris Christie have previously won the governorship after Democratic presidential victories, keeping the state competitive.

2026 Senate Races

Looking ahead to 2026, even a blue wave of Democratic victories in swing states may not be enough to flip the Senate, since most of the competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, limiting their opportunities to gain ground.

The only seat held by a Republican in a state won by Harris in 2024 is the Maine seat, held by Sen. Susan Collins. Although Harris won Maine by 7 points, Collins has a history of overperforming her Republican counterparts in the state; she won reelection in 2020 by 8 points when President Joe Biden won the state by 9.

The most competitive Senate elections will be in Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for reelection, and the leading Republican primary contenders are U.S. Rep. Mike Collins and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. A recent poll by Cygnal (R) showed Ossoff leading Collins by 3 points and tied with Raffensperger. However, the poll should be taken with a grain of salt, as early head-to-head polls are largely shaped by name recognition, which tends to improve for challengers as the election nears.

In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, leaving the seat open. The best-known Republican is Mike Rogers, who ran for Senate in 2024 and narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin by 0.3 points, and has announced another run in 2026. The Democratic field is less defined, but the latest poll from Glengariff Group shows declared candidate Abdul El-Sayed –director of the Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services in Wayne County – as the candidate with the highest name recognition.

North Carolina presents one of the few pickup opportunities for Democrats, where incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is seeking reelection. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper would likely be the party’s strongest challenger, given his electoral success in 2016 and 2020, though he has not yet publicly said he will run for the seat.

Other potentially competitive races include Democratic-held seats in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, as well as Republican-held seats in Florida and Ohio. However, flipping any of those seats would require a massive red or blue wave, likely stemming from increasing approval of or extreme dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. With Republicans currently holding a 53–47 Senate majority, Democrats would need to gain four seats to take control, since Vice President JD Vance casts the deciding vote in a 50-50 tie.