Are Generation Z Voters Breaking From the GOP?

One of the key groups that contributed to Trump’s 2024 victory was Generation Z, who, while still favoring Harris overall, backed him at higher levels than young voters had supported Republican candidates in previous elections. Yet, a recent Emerson poll suggests that in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, California Gov. Gavin Newsom now leads Vice President JD Vance among Gen Z voters by a wide margin.

However, such early conclusions should be treated with caution, as cross-tab results from small subgroups often lack the statistical reliability to support definitive claims. At the same time, Republicans have reason for concern, as several cultural podcasters who championed Trump in 2024 are beginning to distance themselves from him.

The poll that sparked discussion of Gen Z’s possible shift left was conducted by Emerson College Pollingfrom Oct. 13-14. When asked about a potential matchup between Vance and Newsom for 2028, the poll found that among the 141 respondents aged 18 to 29, 55% said they would vote for Newsom and 25% for Vance. However, this result lacks the statistical reliability of a full poll.

In a standard poll, researchers aim to ensure the poll's respondents reflect the overall U.S. population, balancing factors such as age, race, education level, and region. Within specific subgroups, however, that balance becomes harder to maintain unless the poll is specifically designed to study that demographic. For instance, in the 18-to-29 age bracket, pollsters may have inadvertently included more Democrats while offsetting that with slightly more Republicans in older groups to preserve the overall balance of the poll.

Because of this, reading too deeply into crosstabs can be misleading, since subgroup results are rarely as statistically reliable as the poll’s overall findings. In this case, the 18-to-29 subset included only 141 respondents, meaning even if it was conducted by the same standards of a normal poll, the margin of error would be about ±8.3 percentage points, far higher than what is typical for political polling.

In short, this single result doesn’t mean Republicans have lost young voters. While Gen Z supported Harris 54% to 43% in 2024, according to CNN’s exit polls, that margin was far narrower than in previous elections. Just a decade earlier, voters ages 18 to 29 backed Obama 60% to 37% in 2012 and 66% to 32% in 2008, according to New York Times exit polls.

However, while this support helped Trump in 2024, there is no guarantee it will continue. Many of the podcasters popular among young men, who supported Trump and collectively drew hundreds of millions of views before the election, have since turned against the Trump administration and begun expressing sympathy for some of its most prominent critics.

Adin Ross, a major Gen Z influencer whose stream with Trump garnered tens of millions of views in 2024, said on a recent livestream, “I really, really understand other people's side, and as I'm getting older, I don’t think I’ll ever care enough again for any other politician ever in the future.” In 2024, Ross promoted Trump on stream and presented him with a Cybertruck featuring an image of Trump raising his fist after being shot in the ear.

Another podcaster who previously hosted Trump, Andrew Schulz, featured Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist and likely next mayor of New York, on his podcast “Flagrant” in October. Far from a combative interview, Schulz found common ground with Mamdani on a variety of issues. At one point during the interview, Mamdani applauded when Schulz said he believes that “housing is a human right.”

Earlier this year, Schulz explicitly critiqued Trump and said that he isn’t getting what he expected from him: “He’s doing the exact opposite of everything I voted for. I want him to stop the wars – he’s funding them. I want him to shrink spending, reduce the budget – he’s increasing it.”

This isn’t to say Gen Z’s total vote share will be completely defined by a handful of influencers and podcasters. However, with more of Gen Z’s media diet made up of these podcasts and podcast clips than in older generations, if many of the cultural podcasts that supported Trump in 2024 drift away, it won’t help Republicans in 2028 and beyond.