Canada’s Conservatives Fall, Europe’s Right Gains

Last week, Liberals in Canada won the parliamentary election, leaving Mark Carney as their prime minister – despite Conservatives’ commanding lead just a few months ago. While most political analysts say Trump’s tariffs and his insinuations about Canada becoming the 51st state had a significant negative impact on Conservatives in Canada, such trends are not playing out across the EU, where many countries continue to shift right since Trump returned to office.

For context, according to polls and betting markets, Conservatives in Canada had a 91% chance of winning the majority of seats in the 2025 Canadian parliamentary election after Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as prime minister. However, after Trump was elected and threatened Canada with various tariffs and made remarks about annexing the country, Conservatives’ chances of winning plummeted. The entry of Mark Carney as the Liberal candidate for prime minister further eroded their support, leading to their defeat in last week’s election.

Trump is not pushing all of the West to the left, though. In Romania, George Simion, head of the far-right AUR party, won 41% of the first-round vote in the presidential election on Sunday. In December, right-wing candidate Calin Georgescu won 23% of the first-round vote, but the Constitutional Court of Romania annulled the election, citing alleged “Russian influence.”

Georgescu was subsequently banned from running again in the 2025 elections due to pending criminal charges. Simion, who routinely dons a MAGA hat and attended Trump’s inauguration, filled the void for the right and performed even better than Georgescu had.  Though he led significantly in the first round, in order to become president Simion still needs to earn a majority of votes in the May 18 runoff with current mayor of Bucharest Nicusor-Daniel Dan, who received only 21% in the first round.

Even in countries without elections in the near future, polls indicate movement to the right.

In Germany, the right-wing Alternative for Germany party has gained in polls since the elections on Feb. 23. In an Ipsos poll taken on April 5, AfD polled ahead of the leading party in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union, 25% to 24%. In the PolitPro average of polls, similar to the RCP Average but for Germany, AfD gained 3.2 points compared with its February results (24% vs. 20.8%), while the CDU lost 3.5 points (28.5% vs. 25%).

In the United Kingdom, the right-wing Reform party has also gained steam. In the latest YouGov poll, 26% supported Reform UK, while 23% supported Labour and 20% supported the Tories. In the 2024 elections, Labour received 34%, Tories 24%, and Reform only 14%. While many of these gains were registering even before Trump entered office, Reform has continued rising since Jan. 20, unlike Conservatives in Canada.