Canadian Liberals Gaining Popularity Under New Leadership

In January, former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was so unpopular that Canadian conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a 90% chance of being elected the next prime minister of Canada after an election this year, betting odds predicted. However, since Trudeau stepped down, newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney has helped the Liberals immensely, bringing the election back to a toss-up.

In January, Trudeau announced that he would step down from being Canada’s prime minister: “This country deserves a real choice in the next election and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.” He then said he would resign as prime minister after the party chose a new leader.

The new leader the Liberals chose in a Liberal Party leadership election was Mark Carney. Carney had never held elected office before, though he did serve as the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 during the financial crisis, and then as the governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. Since 2020, he has also served as an informal adviser to Trudeau on how to avoid a recession during the COVID pandemic, became an adviser and joined boards of various financial services companies, and was a special adviser to the Liberal task force on economic growth. Since becoming prime minister, he has called a snap election to be held on April 28.

The Conservative leader and candidate for prime minister is Pierre Poilievre. Unlike his opponent, he has been part of Canadian politics for most of his adult life. In 2004, he entered the Canadian Parliament at the age of 25 and has since been part of Parliament and held cabinet positions during his time in government. In 2022, he was voted leader of the Conservative Party.

Under Carney’s leadership, Canada’s Liberals have fared much better in recent polls. Polls in January after Trudeau dropped out had Liberals down 15-24 points, depending on the poll. In the latest poll, taken by Liaison Strategies/NEPMCC, Liberals now lead Conservatives 40% to 36%. In most polls taken since Carney was sworn in as prime minister on March 14, Liberals lead Conservatives.

The Polymarket betting odds now have the race as a pure coin flip, with Carney and Poilievre both at a 50% chance of being elected prime minister. On Jan. 6, Poilievre had a 92% chance of becoming the next prime minister in the betting odds. 

With the ongoing trade tensions escalating between the United States and Canada, Trump has weighed in, saying, “I think it’s easier to deal actually with a Liberal and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care. It doesn’t matter to me at all,” in an interview with Laura Ingraham.

Poilievre has been somewhat standoffish with Trump regarding the trade wars as well, despite both representing the conservative parties of their respective countries. “Regardless of what the president does, we can’t rely on him and we can’t rely on the Americans anymore,” Poilievre told reporters in early March. “We’ve learned our lesson from 10 years of helplessness; we need to take back control of our economy and bring home a strong, self-reliant, and sovereign nation.”