Collins Leads Georgia GOP Primary; Ossoff Favored in General

An early poll out of Georgia finds that Rep. Mike Collins leads in the 2026 Georgia Republican Senate primary, though the field remains open. The real battle would then come in the general election, where Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is expected to have a significant advantage.

The poll from Rosetta Stone/InsiderAdvantage found that in the primary, Collins led with 25%, followed by Rep. Buddy Carter at 20%, and former Alabama football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. A plurality of voters (38%) were undecided.

Because Georgia Senate primaries, scheduled for May 19, include runoff elections if no candidate reaches a majority, the race remains highly fluid. InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery noted this dynamic in the poll analysis, writing, “Usually the candidate with the lead at this point is considered likely to be in that runoff… There is no way to possibly suggest who they might face in a runoff or how the races might end up.”

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones led with 24%, followed by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger at 14%, and Attorney General Chris Carr at 9%. As in the Senate primary, uncertainty remains high, with 49% of respondents undecided.

The primaries represent only the beginning of the fight for the state, as Democrats are expected to hold an advantage in both the Senate and gubernatorial general elections. In the current RCP Average for the General Congressional Ballot, Democrats lead by 3.7 points, a 6.4-point swing compared to the 2024 elections, if the midterms were held today. In 2024, Donald Trump carried Georgia by just 2.2 points.

These narrow margins give Democrats an edge in Georgia, similar to other swing states where small shifts can decide outcomes. Georgia is a state Democrats can win even without a clear advantage, as demonstrated in the 2022 Senate race, when Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock defeated Republican Herschel Walker in a runoff by 2.8 points, when the Generic Congressional Ballot had Republicans favored.

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff also benefits from incumbency. In the RealClearPolitics Averages for potential general election matchups between Ossoff and Collins, Carter, or Dooley, Ossoff leads in each scenario.

Betting markets currently give Democrats a 76% chance to win the Senate race in Georgia and a 59% chance to win the governorship.

For the balance of power in the Senate after the 2026 elections, Georgia is a critical seat for Democrats to hold. Without it, Democrats would need to win another red-leaning state such as Texas, Alaska, or Ohio, to reclaim the Senate, states that present far more difficult paths to victory.