Congressional Job Approval Hardest Hit During Government Shutdown

Amid the government shutdown entering its third week, Trump’s approval ratings have remained steady. The latest polls show that the branch of government taking the hardest hit is the legislative, with congressional approval plunging sharply since the shutdown began.

The poll revealing this damning result comes from Gallup, the nation’s longest-running public opinion survey. The poll, taken when the shutdown started on Oct. 1 and ended on Oct. 16, found that only 15% approve of “the way Congress is handling its job,” while an overwhelming 79% disapprove. One month ago, approval was still very negative but 11 points better, at 26% approving.

Most of the decrease in approval came from Republicans. In September, 54% of Republicans approved of Congress, as well as 21% of independents and 12% of Democrats. All three approval rates decreased, to 33%, 12%, and 5%, respectively.

Low approval of Congress isn’t just a Trump-term phenomenon, however. As recently as February 2024, when Democrats failed to pass an immigration bill but succeeded in passing Ukraine and Israel aid at the same time, overall approval was lower than it is now, at just 12%. The all-time low approval in a Gallup poll was a mere 9% in November 2013, right after the government was shut down in October during debates about continued funding for Obamacare.

This same shutdown dive didn’t hit Trump’s approval. In the Gallup poll, in fact, his approval rose from 40% to 41% from September to October. In the RCP Average for Trump Approval, Trump’s approval is up about two points from his second-term low on Sept. 30, right before the shutdown, rising from -8.2 net approval to -6.4.

Though it hasn’t lowered, according to Gallup, Trump’s second-term approval average at the third quarter of the term is only higher than Richard Nixon’s second-term average, at 40.3% to Nixon’s 31.8%. Other recent presidents who have had a second term were similarly low, with George W. Bush and Barack Obama at 43.9% and 44.5%, respectively.

Where the shutdown could start to bleed over beyond congressional approval is if government employees’ paychecks stop coming through. Some already didn’t on the 15th, but all except those Trump is attempting to get paid despite the shutdown, including FBI special agents, federal immigration agents, Border Patrol officers, and active-duty military personnel, will stop getting paid on Nov. 1. The pain caused by missed paychecks would likely start hurting Trump’s approval, bringing him to a new term low if not fixed quickly.

Betting markets don’t think that relief will come right away, however. On one betting market, Kalshi, the current predicted length of the shutdown is 44.5 days, an additional 22 days beyond Oct. 24. When the shutdown started, the markets predicted it would last 10.6 days, though that estimate has continued to increase since then.