Crockett Leads Democratic Field in Texas Senate Race

Since 2018, when Beto O’Rourke brought Texas to within 2.6 points of flipping Democratic, Democrats have been trying to turn the Lone Star State blue. This cycle, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is at the center of Democrats’ latest bid to crack the GOP’s grip on Texas.

In the latest poll from Texas Southern University, conducted Dec. 9–11 with 1,600 likely Democratic voters after Crockett announced her run and Rep. Colin Allred dropped out of the race to run for Congress, Crockett led the Democratic primary field with 51%. Her closest competitor, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, trailed at 43%, while 6% were undecided.

A few factors suggest Talarico still has a viable path to victory, despite Crockett’s early lead. According to the poll, 94% of likely Democratic primary voters said they know enough about Crockett to form an opinion about her, compared with 79% who said the same of Talarico. Early polls often favor better-known candidates, giving Talarico room to gain support as his name recognition increases.

The poll also found that 58% of respondents believe Talarico would be more successful at persuading Republicans to vote for him in the general election, compared with 29% who said the same of Crockett. While Talarico trails Crockett in favorability, with 77% viewing him favorably compared with 85% for Crockett, fewer voters hold an unfavorable opinion of him. Just 2% viewed Talarico unfavorably, compared with 9% for Crockett. As attention turns to general election viability, those perceptions could allow Talarico to gain ground.

On the Republican side, the primary contest is also unsettled. The latest poll from co/efficient found incumbent Sen. John Cornyn leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 1 point, 28% to 27%. Rep. Wesley Hunt trailed both candidates with 19%.

Although the poll suggests a close race, Texas requires a runoff if no candidate receives a majority in the primary. In that scenario, Paxton would likely be favored, as Hunt has said he would endorse Paxton if he does not advance to the runoff. Betting markets reflect that dynamic, giving Paxton a 59% chance of winning the nomination, compared with 29% for Cornyn and 14% for Hunt.

In head-to-head general election matchups, Republicans are generally favored, but only by a few points. In a University of Houston and Texas Southern University poll conducted in late September, Paxton led Crockett by 2 points and Talarico by 3 points. Cornyn led Crockett by 6 points and Talarico by 3 points.

Although those matchups showed relatively tight margins more than a year before the election, Texas’ history of voting Republican statewide leaves the GOP as the clear favorite. Betting markets give Republicans a 79% chance of holding the seat.

Texas is a critical state for Senate control in 2026. For Democrats to flip the chamber, they would likely need to win Texas while also flipping seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, and holding seats in Georgia and Michigan. If Texas were to go the way of Democrats, it would likely coincide with a broader Democratic wave, making those other states more likely to be won by Democrats as well.