Democrats Gain Early Betting Market Edge for 2028

Since the start of the Iran war, President Trump’s approval has fallen to term lows. Though he touts high approval among those who identify as “MAGA” Republicans, betting markets are increasingly skeptical that support from the MAGA base will be enough to win the presidential election in 2028.

The latest betting market odds give a representative of the Democratic Party a 60% chance to win the 2028 presidential election. The exact candidate is less clear, as Gavin Newsom has only a 17% chance to win, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6.3% and Jon Ossoff at 5%.

This lead is new and coincides with the growing unpopularity of the war in Iran. On Feb. 28, when the war began, Democrats were favored at just 55% to win in ’28. Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, Trump’s net approval has dropped from -11.4 to -15.2.

That early democratic lead stands in contrast to the 2024 presidential election cycle, where betting markets showed little sustained advantage for either party. In betting markets, at no point did the combined likelihood of all candidates from one party consistently exceed a 60% chance to win, and for most of the cycle, it remained much closer to 50% for both parties. The only brief exception came in July, after Trump was shot and President Joe Biden had yet to drop out of the race, where Trump had a 65% chance to win. Otherwise, betting markets hovered around a roughly 50–50 split, with Biden and Trump effectively tied until early May, and Trump and Kamala Harris tied until early October.

This is to say that such an early lead for one party is unusual, especially given how uncertain the 2028 field remains and how little clarity there is about who the actual nominees will be. Even within the Republican field, there is no clear frontrunner; betting markets give Vice President JD Vance just a 36% chance of securing the nomination and 26% to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. That leaves a 38% chance that the nominee will be someone other than Vance or Rubio. Other candidates with less than 5% in betting markets include Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Ron DeSantis, and Glenn Youngkin.

Beyond the administration’s current unpopularity, historical precedent also points in the Democrats’ favor heading into 2028. Since Herbert Hoover, no individual from the same party as the sitting president has won the presidency, except George H.W. Bush in 1988. In other words, absent an incumbent running, the president’s party has won only once since Hoover.

When H.W. Bush won, Ronald Reagan had significantly higher approval ratings than Trump does now. In November 1988, Reagan’s approval stood in Gallup polls at 57%. Trump, by contrast, peaked at 51% approval in the RCP Average at the start of his term and now sits at 41.4%.

Even high approval for a sitting president does not guarantee electoral success, though. In November 2000, Bill Clinton had a 63% approval rating, yet his vice president, Al Gore, did not win the presidential election.

The decline in support for the Trump administration also makes Republican prospects for the House and Senate grimmer for both 2026 and 2028. For 2026, betting markets give Democrats an 86% chance to win the House and a 51% chance to win the Senate.

In 2028, betting markets assign a 42% chance that Democrats will sweep the presidency, House, and Senate. This is followed by an 18% chance that Republicans win the Senate while Democrats win the House and presidency. Only a 16% chance is given to a Republican sweep, and a 10% chance that Republicans win the Senate and presidency but lose the House.

These betting market probabilities still leave open the possibility that Republicans regain support over the next two years, as 40% is much closer to 50% than 0%. However, they suggest that despite concerns about the Democratic Party following the 2024 election, Republicans may have to do some soul-searching themselves if they hope to retain power in 2028.