Democrats Take Lead From GOP on Inflation, Economy

In 2024, President Trump and Republicans held a clear advantage on the issues Americans cared about most, particularly inflation and the economy, which led to GOP victories. New polling from Echelon Insights suggests that edge has eroded, with Democrats now leading on many of those same top concerns, giving them an advantage heading into the midterms and the 2028 election cycle.

Looking back at an Economist poll from October 2024, Trump led on several key issues: 7 points on inflation, 5 on jobs and the economy, 13 on immigration, and 5 on foreign policy. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris led by 17 points on abortion, 14 on health care, and 16 on climate change. What ultimately helped Trump win the election was that the issues on which he performed best were the ones voters cared about most. Inflation and prices ranked first at 25%, followed by immigration at 13% and jobs at 11%. Health care, abortion, and the environment trailed at 10%, 7%, and 7%, respectively.

In the latest Echelon Insights poll, conducted April 17-20, voters now express greater trust in Democrats than Republicans on nearly all of these issues, except immigration and border security. Democrats lead by 3 points on jobs, 2 points on foreign policy and 8 points on inflation.

Immigration has also declined in importance. After ranking as the second most important issue previously, the Echelon Insights poll found that only 8% of voters now cite it as their top issue, placing it fifth. The issues that have risen most are political corruption, now second at 16%, and the state of democracy, third at 14%. On trust in the ability to address the “state of democracy,” Democrats hold an 11-point advantage.

This decline in Republican support on top issues is contributing to a growing deficit midterm poll. The Echelon poll found Democrats leading by 6 points, similar to their 5.7-point lead in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average for the Generic Congressional Ballot.

There is also a growing emphasis among Democrats on political pragmatism. When asked which direction the party should move in to win the next presidential election, 42% of Democrats said toward the center, while 24% said to the left and 18% said the party is currently in the right place. This is reflected in early preferences for Democratic presidential candidates, with Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom leading at 22% and 21%, respectively, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 12% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%.

However, this ranking does not fully reflect how closely Democratic voters feel aligned with these candidates. When asked which candidates best reflect their own beliefs, Harris led with 85% saying she was very or somewhat close, followed by Buttigieg at 70%, and Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom at 67%.

The stronger predictor of candidate support appears to be perceived electability. Newsom led on that measure, with 73% saying he is very or somewhat electable, followed by Harris at 68%, Buttigieg at 65%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 59%.

Even though many Democratic voters say the party should move toward the center to win elections, their views on policy appear to be shifting leftward over time. In a 2010 Gallup poll, 53% of Democrats said they had a positive view of socialism, while the same share said they viewed capitalism positively. By 2018, the share viewing socialism positively rose to 57%, and by 2025 it reached 65%. The Echelon Insights poll suggests this trend is continuing, with 68% saying they agree more with the statement, “Democratic socialism, where government can be relied on to provide basic needs, is the best way to build an equitable economy and society,” than with the statement, “Capitalism with sensible regulation is the best way to build a strong, growing economy.”

Taken together, these trends give Democrats a clear advantage heading into 2026 and 2028. The party now leads on many of the most important issues while also emphasizing electability over ideological purity, strengthening its overall position. Betting markets reflect these advantages, giving Democrats an 86% chance to win the house in November, a 50% chance to win the Senate despite unfavorable maps, and 63% odds to win the presidency in 2028.