Do MAGA Voters Have Doubts About the Iran War?

President Donald Trump has 100% support among respondents who identified as MAGA, and the Iran war has 90% approval among that group, according to an NBC poll highlighted in a viral clip Wednesday. But while Trump and the military action in Iran still have net positive approval among MAGA supporters and Republicans, other polls find support for the war is lower than for other issues, and is likely to decline further if the war continues.

While the NBC poll purports to show that MAGA is almost fully on board with the war, other polls differ on this conclusion. Seventy-eight percent of self-identified MAGA respondents said they supported the war in Iran, and only 69% of Trump supporters said the same, in the latest Economist/YouGov poll. A Washington Post poll found that 80% of Trump voters and 75% of Republicans support the “military campaign against Iran.” A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 66% of Republicans did not approve of Trump’s attack on Iran.

This is much lower than his support among Republicans on other issues, such as immigration. While overall approval for Trump on immigration sat at -4, among MAGA respondents, 92% approved. Similarly, among Trump voters, 86% approved, 17 points higher than approval for the Iran war, the Economist poll found.

Overall, the military action against Iran has a net negative approval of -4.7 in the RCP Average. The polls showing the highest approval, from InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar Group, and Rasmussen Reports, included additional context, telling respondents the goal was to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to destroy its missile arsenal. Every poll with net approval above +5 used this framing, suggesting that approval is significantly lower in polls that do not include it.

All signs indicate that the longer the war drags on, the lower approval will fall. In a CBS poll, 76% said they would approve of the military action if it lasted days or weeks, while 46% said they would approve if they thought it would last months, and only 13% said they would approve if it lasted years.

A prolonged war could also start to hit Americans pocketbooks hard. According to the Economist poll, 55% said gas prices were going up a lot, and 32% said they were going up a little. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gas prices have increased by 27% over the four weeks preceding March 16, the second-largest four-week increase in three decades. This surpasses the increase in 2022, when, after Russia invaded Ukraine, gas prices rose 24% in the four weeks preceding March 14.

Markets also don’t expect this to be the peak for gas prices. After peaking at $100 per barrel Thursday, prices settled in the mid- to high-$90s per barrel, up from $65 per barrel on Feb. 26 before the war. Betting markets on Kalshi say there is a 55% chance that oil prices will reach $130 or higher before the end of the year. This could translate to gas prices in the high $3 to low $4 per gallon range, with prices rising to $6 or even $7 per gallon in some states such as California. These increases align with expectations among Americans, the Reuters poll found, with 67% expecting gas prices to worsen.

As in 2022, this is likely to accelerate inflation, at least in the short term. Inflation remains the top concern, with 24% rating it as the most important issue, followed by jobs and the economy at 12%, which could also be affected by a spike in gas prices. Up from 22% on Feb. 22, 35% now think there will be at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a common definition of a recession, in 2026, according to betting markets.