Early Signs Heavily Favor Democrats in Virginia Gov Race

Although Virginia often votes Democratic in presidential elections, statewide races have been more competitive. In 2025, however, early polling suggests that Republicans may face an uphill battle, as Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger holds a significant lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for governor.

Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer and three-term congresswoman from Virginia’s 7th District, announced in November 2023 that she would not seek reelection to the House. Instead, she launched her bid for governor, positioning herself early as the Democratic front-runner in the 2025 race. Before becoming Lt. Governor, Sears was appointed to the Virginia Board of Education in 2011 and ran as a write-in candidate in the 2018 Virginia Senate race.

The latest poll from Virginia Commonwealth University puts Spanberger far ahead of Earle-Sears. The poll, conducted from June 19 to July 3 with 764 registered Virginian voters, found that Spanberger was ahead by 12 points, 49% to 37%. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s approval was significantly higher than Earle-Sears’ votership, with 49% approving, while only 39% disapproved. Trump is less popular, however, with only 40% approval, while 55% disapprove.

In the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial election, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who had previously served as governor from 2014 to 2018, led in early polling, with a three-point advantage in an early August VCU poll and an eight-point lead in an August Roanoke College poll. However, by Election Day, Youngkin was ahead by 1.7 points in the RealClearPolitics Average, and he won by 1.9 points.

This election will likely be a harder sell for Republicans than the 2021 election, however. In 2021, McAuliffe had a greater name recognition advantage, given his previous tenure as governor. In early polls, name recognition can give incumbents or well-known figures an advantage compared to later polls and Election Day results. In the 2025 gubernatorial election, if anybody has the name recognition advantage, it’s likely Earle-Sears, given her current lieutenant governorship.

The other major effect impacting the Virginia gubernatorial election is that off-year elections bias towards the opposing party of the president. Since 2004, the party that won the presidency has not held the House of Representatives in the midterms.

A similar trend can be seen in the Virginia governor elections. Since 1976, when Jimmy Carter was president, the Virginia governor election in the following year has been won by a member of the opposite party in every year except 2013, when a Democrat won by 2.5 points. In 2013, however, Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis received 6.5% of the vote, likely taking votes from the Republican, since Sarvis had run as a Republican for Senate in 2011, making him more appealing to Republicans.

Given these factors and early polling heavily favoring Spanberger, it is her election to lose. Betting markets concur with this conclusion, with 92% currently predicting her victory.