GOP’s Generic Ballot Blues

“If the election were held today, who would you vote for, the Republican or the Democrat?”

This question is called the Generic Congressional Ballot test. It’s a question almost all political pollsters ask, and in almost identical ways, making it – with presidential job approval ratings – the most robust dataset we track using the RealClear Poll Average.

It is also, as Carl Cannon likes to point out, a question that begins with a false premise. Even accounting for the modern advent of mass early voting, the election is not being held on the day this question is asked of voters, which allows respondents some wiggle room. They can, if they desire, send a message with their response to the relevant campaigns or political parties. Circumstances on the ground can change. Or voters can simply change their minds.

Nevertheless, the generic ballot tally is one of the main tools we have to measure how voters are feeling about the two respective parties at any given point in time. And right now, eight and a half months from the 2026 midterm elections, the answer is not great news for the Republican Party.

The GOP currently trails the Democrats in the RCP Average by 4.8%, 42.7% to 47.5%.

Let’s put that number into historical perspective. On this day (February 23) in 2018, during Trump’s first term, Democrats led Republicans by 8.0% in the Generic Congressional ballot. That lead stayed consistent throughout the year, and on Election Day, the Democrats won the national share of votes cast in U.S. House races by 8.4%. That translated to a net gain of 41 seats in the House – but a loss of two seats in the United States Senate.

In 2006, the only other midterm this century to result in a Democratic victory, Democrats won the national House vote share by 8.0%, gaining 31 seats in the House and five in the Senate.

With just a three-seat majority in the House, Republicans will need to improve their standing in the Generic Congressional Ballot significantly if they hope to retain control. Given historical trends, including President Trump’s job approval rating, such an outcome seems highly unlikely.

However, Republicans can point to a possible silver lining among the gathering clouds: The GOP continues to have a higher net favorable rating than the Democratic Party. Swing voters may be poised to spank the Republicans. Or perhaps they are trying to send both parties a message.