Has Operation Epic Fury Affected Trump’s Approval Rating?

Whether or not an administration chooses to call a military intervention a “war” (and the Trump administration hasn’t decided how to describe its’ Iran bombing campaign), foreign conflicts can take a toll on a president’s popularity.

Harry Truman’s job approval rating hit a nadir of 22% when Korea became a bloody stalemate. In 1968, widespread dissatisfaction over America’s Vietnam quagmire induced Lyndon Johnson not to attempt reelection.

Both Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush had job approval ratings in the 20s – prompted in part by perceived failures in Iran and Iraq, respectively. So that’s the historic burden facing Donald Trump now – in an important midterm election year, no less.

Ten days into Operation Epic Fury, a multitude of national surveys have been conducted gauging public opinion of the United States’ military action in Iran. The verdict? The RealClearPolitics Poll Average shows that 42.8% of Americans approve of military action in Iran, while 49.5% disapprove. As expected, the responses break down along partisan lines, with large majorities of Republicans approving of the strikes and large majorities of Democrats disapproving. On average, a majority of independents also disapprove of the strikes, with one-in-three expressing support for the operation.

When the lens is widened to include Trump’s overall job approval rating, however, it’s not clear that the Iran war has hurt the president at all – at least thus far. On Friday, Feb. 27, the day before the bombing of Iran began, Trump’s approval rating in the RCP Average sat at 43.1%, and his disapproval was at 55.3%. As of Monday, March 9, Trump’s approval rating in the RCP Average is virtually unchanged (43.3%) while his disapproval rating has actually decreased by a full percentage point to 54.3%.

Still, with many surveys showing some two in 10 voters “undecided” or expressing “no opinion” on Operation Epic Fury, the potential remains for Trump to suffer politically if the war drags on and its economic shockwaves are felt more acutely at home.

This is what happened to Truman, Carter, and Dubya: Troubling foreign policy entanglements coupled with economic worries took a steep toll on the president and his party. Today, inflation and affordability remain the primary concerns of U.S. voters, and with average gasoline prices jumping by close to a dollar a gallon in some areas and oil prices spiking to over $110 a barrel, the economic pinch at home, exacerbated by a war in the Middle East, could have serious implications for the president and his party in the 2026 midterms.