Heavyweights Join North and South Carolina Senate Races

Although only six months have passed since President Trump began his second term, the 2026 midterm elections are already coming into focus. In the Carolinas, early maneuvering is underway in what are shaping up to be pivotal Senate contests. With control of the Senate at stake and party divisions intensifying, the upcoming races could help define the direction of both major parties heading into the next presidential cycle.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper joined the race on Monday. Cooper was governor of North Carolina from 2017 to 2025 but was term-limited afterward. Due to his popularity in the state, he is unlikely to face a significant contender in the Democratic primary.

Despite the state leaning red in presidential and Senate races in recent history, it remains a possible swing state because of the success of Cooper. In 2016, despite Trump winning the presidential contest by 3.6 points in North Carolina, Cooper won the state by 0.2 points. Similarly, in 2020, Trump won the state by a point, but Cooper won by 4.5 points.

Cooper’s Republican challenger is less clear. Thom Tillis, a Republican, is the current senator holding the seat but is not running for reelection. The most likely among the Republican field to come out victorious is Michael Whatley, chair of the Republican National Committee, who hasn’t announced yet officially but will, according to Politico. The Politico report also stated Lara Trump, Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, considered running for the seat but opted not to.

While Roy Cooper joining the race makes a Democratic win in the state a significant possibility, it’s still very difficult for Democrats to win back the Senate in 2026. The only Senate race where a Republican is running in a state won by Kamala Harris is Maine, where Susan Collins is the senator. In other toss-ups like Georgia and Michigan, Democrats are running for reelection, which makes it difficult for them to pick up additional seats and overturn the Republicans’ 53-47 majority in the Senate.

In South Carolina, Paul Dans, former director of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, is joining the mix. Unlike Roy Cooper, however, Dans will face a significant battle to win his party’s nomination, as he’s running against incumbent Lindsey Graham, who is seeking his fifth term as senator from South Carolina.

Both Dans and Graham have drawn criticism from the president, casting uncertainty over whether either will receive his endorsement. In 2024, Trump publicly condemned Project 2025 on Truth Social, writing, “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal.” He also criticized Lindsey Graham that April, posting, “Senator Lindsey Graham is doing a great disservice to the Republican Party, and to our Country.” Trump’s remarks were in response to Graham’s anti-abortion stance, which Trump warned could cost Republicans control of the House, Senate, and presidency.

Dans’ bid focuses on similar themes as Trump’s campaign and the goals of Project 2025, namely draining the swamp. “What we’ve done with Project 2025 is really change the game in terms of closing the door on the progressive era… If you look at where the chokepoint is, it’s the United States Senate. That’s the headwaters of the swamp,” he told the Associated Press.