How Trump’s Approval Stacks Up Against Past Presidents
Five months into his second term, Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but dull. From Elon Musk’s brief tenure in the administration to ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, the president’s decisions have sparked widespread debate. The latest polls indicate that due to the flurry of activity, Trump is facing significantly more public unease than his predecessors did at the beginning of their terms.
The longest-running presidential polling firm in the United States is Gallup, which has conducted polls since the 1940 presidential election and consistent approval rating polls since Harry Truman. In the latest poll, taken June 2-19, Gallup found Trump had 40% approval and 57% disapproval. In January, shortly after inauguration, his approval was at 47% in the Gallup polls.
This is slightly below his first-term average in the Gallup polls, which had him at a 41% approval rating. In the RCP Average, Trump’s approval rating hovered around 43% during his first term and currently stands at 46.9%.
Stacking this up against other presidents, he doesn’t fare too well. The only president with approval below Trump’s at this point in his presidency was Trump himself during his first term, at 38%. Bill Clinton’s approval rating in June 1993 was also close, at just 41%. Richard Nixon, in the middle of the June 1973 Senate hearings related to Watergate, and after top aides H.R. Haldeman and John Ehrlichman had resigned, exceeded the approval of both Clinton and Trump, at 44%.
The tendency for most presidents is to have a generally high job approval at the start of their term, which then declines as they face their first major setbacks or controversies. Biden’s approval in June 2021 was 56% in the Gallup poll and around 53% in the RCP Average, but it dropped to 45.3% after the Afghanistan withdrawal, which was enveloped in chaos and resulted in the deaths of 13 U.S. service members.
A 40% approval rating is approximately 30 points below the ratings of some of the most popular presidents. Of the presidents that Gallup measured, John F. Kennedy led the pack at 73% in June of 1961, followed by George H.W. Bush in 1989 at 70% approval, and Lyndon Johnson in 1965 at 67%.
One of the peculiarities of Trump’s approval is his specific rating on the economy, which is currently at 42.4% approval and 55.4% disapproval in the RCP Average, well below his overall net approval of -4.1.
This low approval exists despite ostensibly positive economic indicators. Unemployment remains at just 4.2%, well below historical averages. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is near its lowest level since February 2021, at 2.4%.
The primary source of this economic concern seems to be the tariffs. Though they will undoubtedly be lower on most countries than first announced on April 2, “Liberation Day,” concerns still remain. In an early June Economist/YouGov poll, 37% of those surveyed said gas prices would rise, and 46% predicted inflation would rise as well, while only 22% thought it would decrease.
Part of the concern over the economy might be more vibe-based than grounded in the latest data. The Economist poll also asked whether the unemployment rate in May increased, decreased, or stayed the same, and only 28% accurately recalled that the rate stayed the same at 4.2%, while 39% incorrectly guessed that it either increased or decreased. When asked whether they had heard mostly positive or negative stories about the economy, 47% reported hearing mostly negative stories, while only 9% said they had heard mostly positive ones.
While Trump’s net job approval rating is currently negative, hovering around -4.1, the legislative branch is viewed even less favorably. In the latest Harvard-Harris poll, Congress received 37% approval and 52% disapproval. In the RCP Average, only 28.3% approve, while 59.8% disapprove.
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