Is America Feeling Trump’s Golden Age?

Tuesday night, at President Donald Trump’s joint address to Congress, he reassured Americans that America was entering a new golden age. While Americans in recent history are consistently pessimistic about the nation's future, a few glimmers of a golden age are beginning to shine through on issues such as immigration, personal finances, and Trump’s abilities as a statesman.

Recent polls suggest that Americans are feeling relatively optimistic about the future. According to the RealClearPolitics Average of the direction of the country, there has never been a time when more people believed the U.S. was on the “right track” than the “wrong track.” However, since RCP began tracking this metric, optimism has only been higher than it is now on two occasions – once in 2009 and again for about a month in the early days of President Joe Biden’s administration when the gap between positive and negative sentiment narrowed to -6 points.

Americans remain pessimistic by this measure, though historically, they have tended to be somewhat pessimistic overall. A perhaps more telling indicator of shifting public sentiment is how people perceive specific issues improving or worsening over time.

Economic Outlook

Similar to the future of the nation as a whole, Americans are generally pessimistic about the economy. In the latest March Economist/YouGov poll, only 20% said the economy is getting better, while 43% said it is getting worse, and 29% said it is staying about the same.

However, when asked about personal finances, 36% said they believe their household will be better off in a year than they are now, while 27% said they think they will be worse off financially. Comparatively, when asked if they are better off financially than a year ago, only 12% said yes, while 34% said they are worse off.

Some of the optimism stems from improved views of Trump’s handling of the economy. In the last RCP Average of Biden’s job approval on the economy, he had a net approval of -20.7 points, with 59.5% disapproving and 38.8% approving. While Trump still had a negative approval rating on the economy, he fared 16.5 points better, with only a -4.2% approval.

One of the lingering concerns with Trump’s economic approach is tariffs, especially those imposed on allies. In the Economist poll, 48% supported and 35% opposed the 10% tariff on goods imported from China. However, every other tariff Trump has suggested – including those on Mexico, Canada, and the European Union – had net negative approval ratings as low as -20 points. Opposition was largely driven by the 68% who said tariffs increase prices, and the 54% who said American citizens and companies bear the cost, while only 24% said the burden falls on people in the exporting countries.

Immigration Outlook

Alongside his economic policies and focus on reducing government spending, Trump has prioritized immigration. Among his key policy areas, his approval rating is highest on immigration, with a net approval of 5.1 points – 50.8% approving and 45.7% disapproving, in the RCP Average.

On specific policies, Americans are also optimistic about Trump’s immigration stance. When asked in a previous Economist poll whether they support deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, 50% said they support it, while 40% opposed it. So far, the Department of Homeland Security has reported that in the first month of Trump’s presidency, 37,760 people were deported. If that pace continues, it will amount to approximately 1.8 million deportations over the course of his administration.

American Confidence Under Trump

In the latest Economist poll, conducted before Trump’s joint address to Congress, respondents were asked how they would describe the “state of the union.” Overall, 35% said it was very or somewhat strong, while 46% said it was very or somewhat weak. This discrepancy was largely driven by Republicans, 20% of whom said the union is somewhat weak, perhaps due to lingering effects from the Biden administration. Only 38% said America’s standing worldwide has improved since Trump became president, while 43% said it had worsened.

While the plurality says that America’s standing in the world has worsened under Trump, his address Tuesday seemed to quell some concerns. According to a CBS News snap poll conducted after the address, 75% of those who watched the speech approved, while 23% disapproved. This was partly because 51% of the speech’s viewers identified as Republicans, while only 20% identified as Democrats. However, given the high approval rating, most independents also had to approve of the speech.

Regarding America’s standing in the world, 68% of respondents said the speech made them feel hopeful, 74% said they thought it was presidential, and 71% said it was inspiring.