Is Trump’s Approval Decline Reversible?

During Trump’s first term, his approval rating dipped during the first year and never recovered. During Biden’s term, his approval also fell during the first year and never recovered. Now, Trump’s net approval is again underwater, at -13.1. Historical evidence suggests it could recover before the end of the term, but such a rebound is not the norm.

Comparing Trump’s approval to the last three presidents who served a second term, he is performing similarly one year into the term. On Feb. 12, Trump stood at 42.1% approval, while Barack Obama had 42.5% approval on Feb. 12, 2014, and George W. Bush had 42.6% approval on Feb. 12, 2006.

However, despite the first year looking similar across presidencies, the later years diverged. Bush’s approval declined steadily during his presidency after peaking in the aftermath of 9/11 and the invasion of Afghanistan. Obama’s approval oscillated between negative and positive territory throughout his term, and in the final year of his presidency rose from -8 net approval to +11 net approval by January 2017.

Gallup, which said Wednesday that it will discontinue its presidential approval polling that it has conducted since the Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman presidencies, maintains the longest-running presidential polling record. Looking at Gallup’s data across all presidents since Harry Truman, the general pattern is that once approval falls, it is very difficult to rebound. Of the 14 presidents since Truman, only five finished their terms with approval ratings at least 10 points higher than their lowest point. Most presidents end their terms at or near their lowest approval.

Those who were able to recover were typically two-term presidents, such as Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. The lone exception was Gerald Ford, whose approval fell to 37% after pardoning Richard Nixon but rebounded to 53% in December 1976, shortly after losing the election to Jimmy Carter.

Some other two-term presidents ended their presidencies with low approval ratings, including George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, and Lyndon Johnson. However, at the time of their reelection, all were popular: Johnson held roughly 70% approval, Nixon 62%, and Bush 50%.

For the Republican nominee in 2028, this dynamic could present challenges, similar to Kamala Harris’ difficulty in separating herself from President Biden’s low approval during the 2024 election. This is particularly relevant given that the Republican candidate is likely to come from within the administration, with JD Vance and Marco Rubio currently viewed as the leading contenders.

Regardless of approval ratings, it is historically difficult for a candidate from the same party as the sitting president to win the White House. Since Truman, this has happened only once, when George H.W. Bush won following Ronald Reagan, who had 57% approval at the time of the 1988 presidential election. In all other cases, either the incumbent president was reelected or a candidate from the opposing party prevailed.

This does not mean that any Republican candidate close to the president will lose. Odds do not look good, though, as even when presidents ended their terms with strong approval ratings, their parties often still lost. Bill Clinton held 63% approval in November 2000, and Obama stood at 57% in 2016, yet neither party retained the presidency. Even candidates closely tied to the administration, such as Vice President Al Gore and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, were unable to overcome this structural disadvantage.

Betting markets are already acknowledging this disadvantage for Republicans in 2028. When asked which party will win the 2028 Presidential election, markets give Democrats a 54% chance, and Republicans only a 46% chance. If historical trends continue, Democrats have an even bigger advantage.