Looking Ahead: GOP Likely To Maintain Control of Senate in 2026

As President Trump continues to govern through executive orders, many of them highly controversial, Democrats are already looking to the 2026 midterms. It’s a long way off, but current polling trends – and historic precedent – suggest that  Republicans may be safe in the Senate, while facing an uphill fight to hold the House.

On the Senate side, the main swing states with Democratic incumbents are Georgia and Michigan, while Republicans will try and hold serve in North Carolina and Ohio. Potentially competitive races could materialize in Florida and Texas (with GOP incumbents) and New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Virginia (all currently held by Democrats).

In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for reelection after narrowly winning the 2021 runoff with 50.6% of the vote. On the Republican side, several candidates are being mentioned, ranging from House firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene to popular Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who will be term-limited in 2026.

One of the most competitive Senate seats may be in Michigan, which will not have an incumbent, as Democrat Gary Peters announced Jan. 28 that he will not seek reelection.

A poll conducted March 3-6 among 600 registered Michigan voters by MIRS/Target Insyght tested several hypothetical Senate matchups. In a race between Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and 2024 Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, Whitmer led 42%-41%. In a mock heat between Rogers and Rep. Haley Stevens, Rogers led by 6 points. In a matchup between Rogers and former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who moved to Michigan in 2022, Rogers trailed by 2 points. As always, early polls should be taken with caution, as they often serve better as tests of name recognition than actual election outcomes.

North Carolina is expected to be another highly contested race. Republican incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis plans to run for a third term. On the Democratic side, Rep. Wiley Nickel and Gov. Roy Cooper, who finished his term in 2025, have both expressed interest in running. A poll conducted March 4-5 among 662 registered voters by Public Policy Polling (D) showed Cooper leading Tillis 47%-43%.

Ohio could also be a battleground in 2026. Despite Trump winning the state by 11 points in 2024, Republican Bernie Moreno won his Senate race by just 3.6 points, while Democrat Sherrod Brown previously won the seat by nearly 7 points in 2018. Since J.D. Vance became Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine appointed his Lt. Gov. Jon Husted to the Senate seat until the special election in 2026. 

In a poll conducted in February with 800 registered voters by Bowling Green/YouGov, Jon Husted led Brown by 6 points in a hypothetical matchup. In a head-to-head match between Husted and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, Husted led by seven points.

Given that these four states are the closest contests in the 2026 Senate elections, Democrats face long odds to retake the upper chamber. To regain the majority, they would need to win all four of these seats and flip at least two additional Republican-held seats, such as those in Florida and Texas. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning that even if Democrats gain three seats, a 50-50 split would allow Vice President J.D. Vance to cast the deciding vote. However, the situation where they win more than two seats is very unlikely.

The House of Representatives is a different story. Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority, which will be 220-215 when current vacancies are filled. This is despite the GOP winning the 2024 elections by 2.7 percentage points in the generic congressional ballot.

In the House, Democrats need only gain three seats to secure a majority – almost a rounding error considering that all 435 seats will be up for election. If Republicans remain popular and retain control, it would mark the first time since 2002 that the party opposing the president did not win House control in the midterm elections.