Minneapolis Chaos Hurts Trump Approval, Even With Republicans

On Jan. 7, the day Renee Good was killed by a Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis, President Trump’s approval appeared to be trending in a positive direction. At the time, it had risen to -8.2, up from the lows of the government shutdown where it bottomed out at -13.1. However, since chaos erupted in Minneapolis, Trump’s approval has fallen again, and a new poll finds the decline is directly tied to the unrest.

A Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll conducted Jan. 26 among 1,027 registered voters after the controversial shooting of Alex Pretti by CBP agents during a Jan. 24 altercation found Trump’s approval at -10. That represents a 6-point decline from the firm’s Dec. 20-21 poll, which showed Trump at -4 net approval.

Following both shootings, 28% cited the zealousness with which ICE has pursued its mission as the top reason they disapprove of Trump, up 10 points from before the shooting of Pretti. Fifty-three percent said the chaos in Minneapolis was a “turning point” for them personally, including 39% of Republicans. Only 39% approve of Trump’s handling of immigration – which was his strongest issue at the start of his second term – while 47% disapprove.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement also faced sharply negative public opinion. Just 32% view the agency favorably, while 55% view it unfavorably. Forty-seven percent said they support disbanding ICE, including 25% of Republicans.

Another poll from Fox News, conducted Jan. 23-26, found that the focus on immigration may be detracting from attention to the economy, which is hurting Trump. When asked whether Trump was spending too much or too little time on various issues, 47% said he was spending too much time on immigration and border security, more than the 37% who said the same about foreign policy. On the economy, however, 68% said he was not spending enough time on the issue, while just 8% said he was spending too much time on it.

A plurality of respondents, 36%, said Trump’s top priority should be jobs and the economy, while only 7% overall, and 13% of Republicans, said it should be immigration.

When Trump’s approval was positive at the start of the year, immigration was the issue he performed best on. With Trump now facing significant disapproval on immigration at -6.5 points and -14.4 points on the economy in the RCP Average, a rebound to get his approval back above water is becoming more difficult.

During President Biden’s term, his approval fell into negative territory following the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which culminated in the deaths of 13 U.S. service members at the Abbey Gate bombing, and never recovered. As more polls are released after the latest shooting, Trump’s approval is likely to fall similarly and will require significant positive developments to reverse course.