New Poll Shows PA Voters’ Balance on ICE, Immigration

The latest joint polling effort between RealClear Opinion Research and Emerson Polling explores attitudes toward immigration and immigration reform in Pennsylvania. Immigration is figuring as a critical issue in the midterm elections and is likely to loom as a top concern in 2028. Understanding attitudes in a critical battleground like the Keystone State is crucial for discerning how those elections are shaping up.

For this piece, we’ll confine ourselves to the toplines. A subsequent piece will explore the crosstabs. However, to put this up front: The crosstabs do reveal what appears to be a pretty good sample. Those who recall voting in the 2024 presidential election report having voted for Kamala Harris by 1 point. Readers might want to mentally move the results a point or two in a conservative direction to correct for this, but note that all of these results have error margins, and the Harris-Trump result is within the error margin of the actual result.

This sample is overall well informed, with 47% of respondents reporting that they have been following news related to immigration and deportations “very closely.” Another 32% reports following the news “somewhat closely.” The plurality source for news is social media – 27% of respondents cite that as their source – while 21% point to cable or network news.

The bottom line is this: 58% believe that efforts by ICE officers to deal with unauthorized immigration in the country go too far. Only 17% of respondents claim that it does not go far enough. Fifty percent of respondents think that ICE’s presence in Pennsylvania has been harmful on balance, while 28% say beneficial, with the balance saying it has had no impact. Immigrants, though – both legal and illegal – remain on balance popular, with 46% saying they have a positive impact on the community, versus 28% who say they have a negative impact.

When we dig down, however, the evidence is a bit more equivocal. For example, elimination of ICE is unpopular. Just 36% of respondents favor elimination while 45% would oppose it. Another 18% are unsure how they feel. When asked how concerned they are about immigration-related arrests in their area, 28% of respondents claim to be “very concerned,” while 27% say they are “somewhat concerned.” 22% report being “not too concerned” and 24% are “not at all concerned.”

Further, when pressed on whether local police in the community should “always cooperate,” “cooperate in some cases,” or should “never cooperate” with federal immigration authorities to deport people who are in the country illegally, the plurality response was “always cooperate,” with 38% giving that answer. “Should cooperate in some cases” – which admittedly could cover a wide range of circumstances – received 37% of responses, while “should never cooperate” received the support of just 16% of respondents. Overall, just 42% of respondents thought that Kristi Noem should resign as Secretary of Homeland Security.

People likewise were equivocal about the prospect of a government shutdown. Some 46% thought that reforms needed to be made, even if it temporarily shut down the government. On the other hand, 39% believed it was more important to keep the Department of Homeland Security funded.

Though respondents are wary of abolishing ICE, a variety of reforms to ICE poll well. Sixty-eight percent strongly support requiring ICE agents to wear body cameras; 58% support prohibiting ICE from making arrests on state property, court houses, and schools; and 64% would support allowing residents to sue the federal government if ICE violates constitutional rights. Prohibiting ICE agents from wearing masks is probably best described as “on balance popular” – 53% support, 37% oppose, with the rest unsure.

One issue that featured prominently in debates about immigration in the 1990s and 2000s, but which has faded from the conversation today, is E-Verify. E-Verify places some of the onus for combating illegal immigration on employers, who are required to confirm the eligibility of their employees and face fines if they violate the law. Fifty-three percent believe this would be a good thing, with just 12% saying it would be a bad thing.

Immigration has turned from one of Republicans’ best issues in 2024 to one that is more balanced between the parties. That’s good news for Democrats. At the same time, Democrats can’t assume victory, as their most progressive issues still don’t poll terribly well. Overall, Pennsylvanians see a need for reform, but also seem content to stop there.