New Swing State Polling Data

One week before election day, new swing state polling gives little insight into how the race might turn out, though Trump is up in five out of seven battleground states, according to the RCP Average.

This week was met with a barrage of new numbers out of battleground states, most of which place the race within their respective margins of error and give the country little indication as to who might come out on top in this election.

The blue wall states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – are all incredibly tight races. Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats have long considered these northern states as their most obvious path to victory, but with days to go, Harris leads only in Michigan and Wisconsin.

New polling out of Wisconsin exemplifies how close the race is across the swing states. Atlas Intel showed the candidates tied at 49% support and InsiderAdvantage gave former President Donald Trump a one-point lead over Harris. A CNN poll had Harris up six points. In the Wisconsin RCP Average, Harris leads by 0.2 points.

Trump leads by 0.8 points in the Pennsylvania RCP Average. Polling from CBS News shows the race tied in Pennsylvania, while InsiderAdvantage and Fox News gave Trump a one-point lead over Harris and Atlas Intel placed Trump three points up, suggesting the former president has a better shot than his opponent at winning the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes.

There is some polling whiplash out of Michigan, as three polls from Emerson College, Atlas Intel, and InsiderAdvantage give Trump a one-point lead over Harris, while plls from Susquehanna placed Harris up five points. Quinnipiac had Trump up two over Harris, while polls from USA Today/Suffolk and Fox News showed the race tied. Harris leads by 0.4 points in the Michigan RCP Average.

Sunbelt state polling is similarly close, though Trump has a more impressive leg up in Georgia and Arizona than he does in any of the blue wall states. The race is closest in Nevada: CNN and Atlas Intel have Trump up one point on Harris, while Trafalgar Group (R) shows the race tied. Trump has a razor-thin edge in the Nevada RCP Average, up 0.5 points.

Two polls out of North Carolina, from Elon University and WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA, showed Harris and Trump with even support. Atlas Intel polling placed Harris up one point in the Tar Heel State, and Trafalgar Group (R) gave Trump a three-point edge over Harris. A Fox News poll showed Trump with a one-point lead. In the North Carolina RCP Average, Trump leads by one point. 

Trump’s lead is larger in Georgia, where just one poll dropped Tuesday. Atlas Intel placed Trump up three points over Harris, bumping Trump’s lead in the Georgia RCP Average to 2.4 points.

Trump’s best numbers are out of Arizona, where Atlas Intel showed the former president with a four-point lead, and Data Orbital placed Trump up a whopping eight points (50%-42%) in the Grand Canyon State. Meanwhile, data from CNN showed Harris up one point in Arizona, evening out Trump’s lead in the Arizona RCP Average to 2.5 points.

The electorate, in its growing anxiety, is looking increasingly at poll data to predict the outcome of the election. Unfortunately, the data tells us only one thing: the race is too close to call.