Poll: Ohio Back Up for Grabs in 2026

In 2024, it looked like Ohio might have been moved more soundly into the right-leaning state category after Trump won the state by 11.2 points and Republican Bernie Moreno won the state against longtime incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown by 3.6 points. However, looking to the midterms, the latest poll indicates the Buckeye State might again be a toss-up, with the major Senate and gubernatorial races within just a few points.

The poll, taken by the Bowling Green State University/YouGov, found that in the head-to-head matchup for Senate between John Husted, the incumbent Senate candidate chosen to replace JD Vance, and Democrat Sherrod Brown, Brown led by one point, 49%-48%.

In the governor’s race, Vivek Ramaswamy is the overwhelmingly favored Republican candidate. For Democrats, there’s the potential to be a bit of a battle culminating in a May 5 primary between Amy Acton, former director of the Ohio Department of Health, who’s already declared her candidacy, and Tim Ryan, former representative from Ohio and 2022 Senate candidate, though he hasn’t officially joined the race yet. In the theoretical matchup, the poll found Amy Acton ahead by nine points, 50%-41%, though that may change if Ryan joins, as already declared candidates tend to have an advantage in polls. No matter who wins the Democratic primary, Ramaswamy holds the advantage, leading Acton by three points and Ryan by two.

However, a few caveats should be noted for the poll. The main one is that the poll found that 46% of respondents voted for Sherrod Brown in 2024 and only 43% voted for Moreno, even though Moreno won by 3.6 points.

In the methodology, the poll says that the final weighting of the sample “yielded a sample that voted for Trump over Harris by 10 points in 2024.” This should mean that they had a relatively similar demographic to the one that voted in 2024, yet it found very different results than the actual election on the question of Moreno vs. Brown. This likely means the poll polled too many Brown supporters, and Husted actually has a slight lead in the state, similar to Vivek. A previous poll from Emerson in August had the race much more Husted-favored, at +6.

Still, this has the state as a toss-up, with Trump-like 11-point Republican wins unlikely to be replicated in the near future. This is especially true in the midterms, where Democrats will likely be favored across the country, currently leading by 1.6 points in the 2026 generic congressional ballot.

The Ohio Senate race matters particularly in 2026. Other than Maine, where Republican Susan Collins is running for reelection, and North Carolina, where Republican Michael Whatley or Democrat Roy Cooper will replace Republican Thom Tillis, it’s one of the most likely Senate seats to flip with a Republican incumbent. Other swing-state seats, such as Michigan and Georgia, are already held by Democrats, so winning them again would only maintain their numbers rather than help them gain seats to retake the Senate majority. To do so, they need to win in Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, and one other seat held by Republicans, such as Texas. Without Ohio, it becomes even more difficult for Democrats to flip Republicans’ 53-47 majority.