Polls Tighten After Wesley Hunt Enters Texas Senate Race

On Monday, Texas Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt entered the 2026 Senate race, shaking up what had looked like a Republican primary battle between the old guard represented by Sen. John Cornyn and the new MAGA wing led by Attorney General Ken Paxton. Early polling suggests Hunt could significantly alter the race, and whoever emerges from the GOP primary is unlikely to have an easy path to the Senate, with potential Democratic matchups appearing highly competitive.

The latest poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University found that in the Republican primary, Paxton leads Cornyn 34% to 33%, with Hunt trailing in third place at 22%. While only 11% remain undecided in the potential three-way matchup, given that Hunt is less than a week into his campaign there is strong potential for him to climb in the rankings and challenge both Paxton and Cornyn before the March 3 primary. Hunt’s name recognition, at 69% among Republican primary voters compared with Paxton’s 94% and Cornyn’s 90%, also suggests room for growth as he establishes himself in the race.

Even though Paxton and Hunt will both be vying for a similar base of support among Trump and MAGA Republicans, Hunt’s entry will not act as a spoiler for Paxton. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary, there will be a May 26 runoff. That means even if Hunt hurts Paxton’s numbers in the initial round, Paxton could still face Cornyn in a head-to-head runoff. Hunt acknowledged the overlap between his campaign and Paxton’s in taking on the “establishment” figure of Cornyn, telling Texas Monthly, “If it’s me or if it’s Ken, I’m fine with that. Let’s battle that out. But I can tell you it’s not going to be John Cornyn.”

On the Democratic side, among declared candidates, 2024 Senate candidate Colin Allred led Texas state Rep. James Talarico 46% to 42% in the primary. However, the poll found that if Rep. Jasmine Crockett and 2018 Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke entered the race, Crockett would lead with 31%, followed by Talarico and O’Rourke at 25% each and Allred at 13%. In hypothetical two-way matchups, Crockett also led Talarico by 18 points and Allred by 23.

In general election matchups, all Republican candidates led by only single digits, even though Trump won Texas by 13.6 points in 2024. Hunt performed the strongest, leading Talarico by 6 points and Allred by 5. Cornyn led Talarico by 3 and Allred by 2, while Paxton performed the weakest, leading Talarico by 3 and Allred by just 1 point.

No matter the Republican candidate, the race will not be a foregone conclusion for the GOP. While Texas has voted Republican in every presidential and Senate election since 1994, the margins have narrowed. Trump carried the state by 5.6 points in 2020, and Sen. Ted Cruz defeated O’Rourke by just 2.6 points in 2018.

Despite the 8.5-point loss Allred suffered in 2024 and Harris’ accompanying 13.6-point loss, the state may still be winnable for Democrats in 2026, especially given the razor-thin Republican leads in the poll. The national landscape could also pose risks for Republicans. As in Cruz’s close call in 2018, the GOP could be on the defensive nationally in the midterms, given Democrats’ current 2.8-point lead in the generic congressional ballot and the traditional advantage for the opposition party in midterm cycles.

Betting markets also see potential for a Democratic upset. As of Oct. 10, Democrats had a 19% chance of winning the Texas Senate race, compared with the Republican Party’s 81%.