Redrawn Maps Unlikely to Significantly Favor Either Party in 2026

Indiana’s House of Representatives advanced a proposal Friday to redraw the state’s congressional districts, a plan likely to produce nine Republican and zero Democratic members of Congress if passed by the Senate, shifting the current seven-to-two alignment. The move to redraw the maps is one of many nationwide ahead of 2026, and although Indiana’s map may strengthen the GOP delegation, the broader impact is likely to be limited, as changes in Democratic and Republican states will likely offset each other.

The major states that have already redrawn their maps, or are highly likely to do so before 2026, are California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Utah.

One of the most significant changes is in California, where Proposition 50 passed on Nov. 4, 2025, swapping the maps drawn by an independent commission for a legislature-drawn map for 2026 to 2030. Under the newly proposed maps, Republicans would go from holding nine seats, including a few narrow swing-district wins, to four solidly Republican seats and one swing district they could still win. This has a net effect of adding four to five Democratic seats to the state.

On the other side of the aisle is Texas, where in August the state passed a bill to redraw its congressional map, adding around five Republican seats. After a legal battle, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Texas could use the new maps in the 2026 elections. This means that Texas and California maps will effectively cancel each other out.

In Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina, new maps have also been passed and drawn, likely giving Republicans four more seats in total, two from Ohio and one from each of the other two. In Utah, the legislature’s four-to-zero Republican map was struck down, and a new map with one Democratic-leaning district was drawn to be used in 2026.

The net predicted effect of the states that have officially passed legislation to redraw maps is the addition of about 4 Republican-leaning districts. However, in several of these states, both parties are pursuing appeals or lawsuits to strike down the maps, leaving the possibility for a slightly smaller or larger Republican tilt in the redraws. The most important would be if the Proposition 50 maps are struck down in California, even after the Supreme Court upheld Texas’ redraw.

If Indiana’s new map passes the Senate, that would add another two Republican seats. Despite the state Senate having 39 Republicans and only 10 Democrats, a procedural vote to advance business that would allow redistricting to come to the floor was stalled after 19 GOP senators voted against advancing. This means that to reach the 26 votes needed to pass the bill, seven GOP senators would need to flip from their previous votes to stall the redrawing.

Another significant change could come from Louisiana, where Louisiana v. Callais could determine whether states must continue to have majority-minority districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling between March and June, which could find Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act unconstitutional, likely leading Louisiana to draw a 5-1 GOP-favored map, adding one additional Republican seat. For 2026, Louisiana would likely be the only state affected by this ruling, but for 2028, other Republican states would likely redraw their maps as well. According to a report from Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund, this could result in 19 Democratic-held seats being redrawn in Republicans' favor.

Virginia, Maryland, and Florida are also considering legislation or changes to redraw maps before 2026. In Virginia, a possible state constitutional amendment could add two to four Democratic seats. In Maryland and Florida, Gov. Wes Moore and Gov. Ron DeSantis have each created commissions or committees to consider redrawing maps that could add one seat to each party.

With Indiana and Virginia effectively canceling each other out, and Maryland and Florida doing the same if both maps are redrawn, the net effect of all these changes is likely to be minimal for 2026. However, if one party is more successful in passing legislation and arguing cases in court nationwide, that party could end up with a small advantage.

It is important to note that most of these forecasted gains are modeled on 2024 voting trends. Current polling shows an eight-point Democratic improvement on the Generic Congressional Ballot compared to 2024, making a Democratic House majority overwhelmingly likely even without favorable maps. This means that these political and legal battles are likely to only affect the size of their majority.