Republicans Are Set To Hold the Senate in ‘26, Or Are They?
A few months ago, it seemed nearly impossible for Republicans to lose the Senate in 2026, despite trailing in the generic congressional ballot, because not enough Republicans were up for reelection in states where Democrats could be competitive. However, with elections earlier in November swinging so heavily in favor of Democrats, Republicans’ chances of controlling the Senate dropped to 67%, giving Democrats a real shot at winning.
One of the most important states for Democrats, if they are to win the Senate, will be Maine, where Republican Susan Collins is up for reelection. On the Democratic side, Maine Gov. Janet Mills is being challenged by progressive Graham Platner, and current polls have Platner up 18 points in the RealClearPolitics Average.
In the general election, a poll from the Maine People’s Resource Center taken October 26-29 found that if the contest is between Susan Collins and Platner, Platner would lead by four points. If the contest is between Collins and Mills, Collins leads by four.
Another must-win state for Democrats is North Carolina, where the former Republican National Committee chairman will be running against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Although Trump won the state in 2024 by 3.3 points, Cooper leads Whatley by eight points in the latest Carolina Journal and Harper poll.
The Buckeye State is the first point on the map where Republicans hold the advantage, making it an uphill battle for Democrats. In January, after JD Vance resigned from the Senate to become vice president, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine appointed his lieutenant governor, Jon Husted, to the seat.
In 2026, Husted will face Sherrod Brown, the former Ohio senator who lost to Bernie Moreno by 3.6 points in 2024. This race looks to be closely contested, with the latest poll from Bowling Green and YouGov having Brown up one point. Similar to 2018, when Sherrod Brown won reelection by seven points despite Trump winning the state by 8.1 points in 2016, Brown has a serious shot at winning in 2026 even though Trump and Moreno won in 2024.
In addition to all the previously listed states, Democrats would also need to flip the Texas seat to win a 51-49 majority in the Senate. To try to unseat the Republican-controlled seat, former Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Colin Allred, and state representative James Talarico are running against each other in the primary. In a poll conducted by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, Allred led by four points, but in a poll conducted by Democratic polling firm Impact Research, Talarico led by six points.
The Republican primary is all being contested, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton currently leading incumbent John Cornyn 36.3% to 33.7%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing at 19%. If no candidate receives 50% in the primary, there will be a runoff, and if Paxton or Hunt is eliminated, each will likely endorse the other.
With six possible matchups among the current five candidates running, it is hard to predict where the election will go exactly, but in the University of Houston and TSU poll, the Republican candidate led by between one and six points depending on the matchup.
After sweeping all the states where Republicans currently hold seats, Democrats also need to hold their own seats in the swing states of Georgia and Michigan.
In Georgia, incumbent Jon Ossoff will likely face Republican Rep. Mike Collins, who leads by 9.6 points in the Republican primary. In the matchup, Ossoff leads by 2.3 points in the RealClearPolitics Average, and the latest poll from Quantus Insights has them tied.
In Michigan, former Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers will face the replacement for Gary Peters, who is not seeking reelection. The Democratic primary is a closely contested race between former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, state senator Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens. In the race against Stevens or McMorrow, the matchup is a toss-up depending on the poll. Only against El-Sayed does Rogers lead by a significant margin, 14 points, according to a poll from Rosetta Stone Communications.
Despite needing to sweep six elections, two of which are in Republican-leaning states, Ohio and Texas, betting markets still have Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate at about 30%. If Democrats are able to pull off a blue wave and perform similarly well as they did in Virginia and New Jersey in 2025, a Democratic Senate majority is not out of the realm of possibility, but it is unlikely.
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