Right-Wing Historian Narrowly Wins Polish Presidential Election

In the tightly contested Polish elections on Sunday, Karol Nawrocki, a historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party, was elected president. This leaves the situation in Poland largely unchanged from before the election, as the parliament and presidency will still be at odds on issues such as abortion and gay rights, but remain aligned on aiding Ukraine and defense spending.

Sunday’s vote was the runoff between the two top candidates from the first round of the presidential election on May 18: liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who received 31.3% in the first round, and Nawrocki, who received 29.54%. However, the third- and fourth-place right-wing candidates from the first round endorsed Nawrocki ahead of the runoff, allowing him to eke out a narrow victory with 50.9% to Trzaskowski’s 49.11%. Polls before the election had the race similarly close, with Trzaskowski up just one point.

The result mirrors the close outcome of the 2020 presidential election, when Law and Justice–backed incumbent Andrzej Duda defeated Trzaskowski with 51.03%.

Nawrocki’s vision for the presidency aligns closely with that of the Law and Justice party. A former head of the Institute of National Remembrance, Nawrocki has championed a nationalist platform centered on defending Polish sovereignty, historical identity, and conservative social values. He has pledged to oppose efforts to liberalize abortion laws and to resist European Union influence over domestic affairs, while emphasizing his commitment to the EU over the Russian Federation. A key part of his platform is cultivating stronger relationships with NATO, former U.S. President Donald Trump, and the United States to help maintain Poland’s sovereignty in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, Law and Justice and Nawrocki will not have full control of all parts of the government following this presidential election. Both houses of the Polish parliament are presently controlled by a coalition of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left, under the direction of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Nawrocki will likely have similar disagreements with Tusk as his predecessor, Duda, did on issues such as the politicization of public service broadcasting and access to abortion and contraception.

Both Nawrocki and Tusk are expected to find common ground on supporting Ukraine. They have repeatedly condemned the Russian invasion and played key roles in directing European aid to bolster Ukraine’s defense.

Given Poland’s proximity to Ukraine and Russia, they have also advocated for increased military spending by Poland and all of its NATO partners. Poland spends 4.7% of its gross domestic product on defense, well above NATO’s minimum guideline of 2%. This is more than double the defense spending as a percentage of GDP compared to most other European countries, which generally hover between 1.5% and 2.3%.