Some Voters Lack Confidence in Election Results

Throughout the 2024 election cycle, one of the most frequent questions posed to Trump and his surrogates is whether they believe Trump won the 2020 election. While responses vary from person to person, even Trump himself has offered conflicting answers, saying he “lost by a whisker” on a podcast with Lex Fridman, and asserting he “didn’t lose” during an interview with Joe Rogan. 

Speculation about voter fraud has become common in public discourse, with a significant number of voters now expressing skepticism about election results, according to recent polls.

The latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from Oct. 26-29 among 1,587 U.S. adults, explored these issues. One question asked how much confidence respondents had that the 2024 presidential election would be fair: 23% said they had “a little” or no confidence at all, while 46% said they had “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in the election being conducted fairly. Another 25% expressed “a moderate amount” of confidence. When asked about the 2020 election, 35% of respondents said President Biden did not legitimately win, while 65% said he did.

Some respondents expressed concern that the 2024 election could result in a non-peaceful transition of power. About 23% said a peaceful transition is either “not very likely” or “not likely at all.” However, the majority, 57%, believe a peaceful transition is likely.

These concerns about the validity and fairness of the 2020 and 2024 elections were accompanied by questions about confidence in different aspects of the U.S. electoral system. For instance, the poll asked whether the president should be chosen by the Electoral College or by popular vote. A majority, 54%, said the president should be decided by popular vote, while 28% favored the Electoral College. Support for the popular vote was strongest among Democrats, 75% of whom endorsed the idea, compared to just 37% of Republicans.

On the broader issue of universal suffrage, 41% agreed with the statement that “many citizens are not smart enough to vote,” while 48% disagreed. When asked about requiring a test to vote – something effectively outlawed by the 1965 Voting Rights Act – 32% agreed that people should have to pass a test, while 54% disagreed. This idea had more support among Republicans, 41% of whom agreed, compared to just 27% of Democrats.

Voting by mail also revealed a partisan divide, with 81% of Democrats supporting the practice and 57% of Republicans opposing it. However, this year, Republicans are encouraging early voting, leading to an increase in early voting rates among Republican voters compared to previous elections.