They Won’t Have Gavin To Kick Around Anymore

After eight years of Gavin Newsom, following the second eight years of Jerry Brown (Brown served two terms in the 1970s and 1980s as well), it’s been a while since California had much drama in the governor race. It looks like drama this year – the unexpected kind.

A new survey by Emerson College Polling shows Republican Steve Hilton ahead of a crowded field with 17% of the vote. In silver medal position is Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, with 14.1%, followed closely by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican, with 13.5%.

Rounding out the field are Democrats Katie Porter (9.8%), self-funded billionaire Tom Steyer (8.8%), Xavier Bacerra (3.5%), Matt Mahan (3.4%), Antonio Villaraigosa (2.8%), Tony Thurmond (2.1%), and Betty Yee (1.8%).

The numbers have raised eyebrows in California, which hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in 20 years. Only one-fourth of registered voters in the nation’s largest state are Republican, which suggests that as things sort themselves before the June primary, gravity will reassert itself and Hilton and Bianco will stall out. The question is exactly where the ceiling lies. California has a top-two system, meaning that Hilton or Bianco – but probably not both – can earn a place in the November runoff without coming anywhere near 50%.

The Emerson poll has some other concerning news for Democrats. Voters were asked whether they have considered leaving California because of the cost of living in the state. A majority (53%-47%) answered affirmatively. Perhaps not coincidentally, Gov. Newsom is slightly underwater in his job approval rating.

One obvious hurdle for Hilton and Bianco (for any Republican, really) is that Donald Trump is so far underwater, a snorkel won’t help him – the president needs SCUBA gear. Only 32% of Californians approve the job Trump is doing as president, compared to 62% who disapprove.

There’s a cautionary bit of data in the Emerson poll for Trump’s opponents, too. Sen. Adam Schiff, the California Democrat most strongly identified as anti-Trump, isn’t too well-liked, either. His approval rating is 35% compared to 40% who disapprove of the job he’s doing. In other words, Trump is really unpopular, but a critical mass of registered California voters may be unimpressed with Trump-bashing as well.

Whatever happens, they won’t have Gavin to kick around anymore. Term-limited, he’s apparently running for president. As far as his replacement goes, Democrats aren’t panicking yet. They expect the field to winnow out and for a majority of the 21% of undecided voters to gravitate toward one of the top Democratic candidates. They don’t have forever, though. Election Day is less than 4½ months away, and early mail-in voting starts the first week in May.