Tom Tiffany Leads GOP Field in Wisconsin Governor Bid

On Tuesday, Republican Representative Tom Tiffany announced his bid for governor of Wisconsin. While non-incumbent Wisconsin Republicans have struggled to win statewide races in recent years, Tiffany has better odds of defying that trend in 2026, given his long-standing experience in the state.

In the Republican primary, Tiffany holds a commanding lead. A poll from Republican Firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showed him ahead of Bill Berrien and Josh Schoemann by 27 points, with 40% support compared to Schoemann’s 13% and Berrien’s 10%.

The early polling suggesting Tiffany as clear favorite is echoed by betting markets. The only other notable figure drawing odds is 2024 Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde, who lost his 2024 race by 0.85 points. However, Hovde has not signaled any intention to run for governor, making his entry into the race unlikely.

The real competition is likely to come not from the Republican primary but rather from the Democratic primary and general election. On the Democratic side, incumbent Gov. Tony Evers has announced that he will not seek a third term, leaving the race open for several candidates to compete for the nomination.

The most well-known is Sara Rodriguez, lieutenant governor of Wisconsin since 2023. A few other candidates who could gain traction include state Reps. Francesca Hong and Brett Hulsey, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who has been endorsed by the mayor of Milwaukee. Betting markets for the primary have their money on Sara Rodriguez, at 40%, though that leaves room for other candidates to join the race.

For the general election, it is still anyone’s game. Since 2003, Wisconsin has alternated between eight years of Democratic rule and eight years of Republican rule, with both parties winning races in recent statewide elections.

However, Since 2022, Republicans have lost two statewide Supreme Court races, one Senate race in 2024, and the governor’s race in 2022. Their only statewide victories since 2022 were Ron Johnson’s reelection to the Senate as a longtime incumbent and Trump’s win in the 2024 presidential election. The 2025 Supreme Court election was the most concerning for Republicans, with conservative candidate Brad Schimel losing by 10.1 points to liberal Supreme Court candidate Susan Crawford despite receiving considerable outside support, including approximately $20 million from Elon Musk.

Crawford’s significant win, paired with the general advantage the party opposing the president typically has in midterms, gives Democrats a general advantage for the 2026 gubernatorial race, despite the fact that they will likely face a more competitive primary. In the betting markets, Democrats show a 70% chance of winning the governorship.

Compared to the 2022 governor’s race and 2024 Senate race, Tiffany does have the advantage of living in the state before the election. Both Eric Hovde and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels lived outside Wisconsin for most of the year before campaigning, which became a major sticking point for Democrats. In 2022, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won reelection by 1 point, while Michels lost the governor’s race by 3.4 points. In 2024, Donald Trump carried the state by 0.9 points, while Hovde lost his Senate race by 0.85 points.

Although Wisconsin has leaned Democratic in recent elections, it remains a swing state. With no incumbent in the governor’s race, either party has a chance to win in November 2026.