Trump Approval Slides During First Year

For a moment at the start of his second term, President Trump registered positive job approval in the first RCP Average, something he achieved for only a single day during his first term. However, the positivity was short-lived; his approval has since deteriorated, placing Republicans on a trajectory toward likely midterm defeat.

In the Jan. 20, 2026, RCP Average, 42.4% approved of Trump’s performance, while 55.6% disapproved. This net approval of -13.2 is a 19.4-point swing from the initial RCP Average of his second term, where he had 50.5% approved and 44.3% disapproved, giving him a net approval of +6.2.

The most significant drag on Trump is inflation, where he faces a -23 net approval rating. Over the past year, inflation has continued to hover around 2.5-3%, roughly where it stood when Biden left office, and still above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.

The Russia-Ukraine war has also been an area of strong disapproval for Trump. While his original peace plan in the Israel-Palestinian conflict has resulted in +1 net approval on that issue, the lack of a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war has not been viewed favorably by the American public, where he has a net approval of -20.3.

To be fair to Trump, recent presidents heading into the second year of their first term have not polled well either. On Jan. 20 of their second year, Barack Obama and George W. Bush held approval ratings of 43.6% and 42.5%, respectively, only slightly higher than Trump’s current level. Bill Clinton was the last president to perform relatively well at this stage of his second term, with approval around 60% on Jan. 20, 1998, according to Gallup.

Joe Biden, by comparison, had even lower approval on Jan. 20, 2022, at 40.7%. Trump’s first-term numbers were similar, with approval at just 40.1% on Jan. 20, 2018.

The commonality across these years is that even with approval as high as 60%, as in Clinton’s case, the president’s party failed to retain control of the House in the midterms. In 2026, Republicans’ chances appear similarly slim, with Democrats leading by 4.4 points in the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote and holding a 77% chance to win the House in betting markets.

Unless Trump improves his approval rating over the next three years ahead of 2028, the outlook is also unfavorable for the next Republican nominee, likely J.D. Vance. The last time a presidential candidate from the same party won the presidency was George H.W. Bush, when Ronald Reagan held a 57% approval rating in Gallup polls at the time of the election. Even Barack Obama, who recovered to 53% approval by the 2016 election, was unable to carry Hillary Clinton across the finish line.

Current polling gives Democrats a slight edge in 2028 betting odds, at 54%. This still leaves considerable room for Trump to improve his standing over the next three years, or for a Republican candidate to overcome the odds and win.