Trump Gains Ground in Polls Despite Economic Concerns

As with most administrations, Trump’s approval ratings declined during the first few months of his presidency. Typically, the initial honeymoon period fades quickly, and approval drops following the first major controversy, after which it often remains depressed. However, recent polls show Trump’s approval rebounding, suggesting Americans are more receptive to his policies than they were during his first term.

According to the current RCP Average, Trump has a net approval of -2.1, with 47.6% approving and 49.7% disapproving. That’s a 5-point improvement from late April, when his net approval stood at -7.1 amid heightened concerns over deportations and tariffs. If this trend continues, Trump’s approval could turn positive again, as it was before mid-March.

This is a good sign for the second Trump administration, which appears to be more generally popular than the first Trump term. On May 28, 2017, Trump’s approval was already at -14.1, with only 40% approving, and it remained deeply negative for the duration of the presidency. The only brief respite was at the start of the pandemic, when Trump reached -2 net approval. Similarly, under the Biden administration, following the late August and September 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden’s approval dropped into the negatives and never returned to above -6 net approval throughout his presidency.

Trump Issue Approval

Despite concerns about who is being deported, immigration remains Trump’s most popular issue, with a +2.7 net approval rating in the RCP Average. Around the time of the deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, whom the Trump administration identified as a member of the MS-13 gang and deported to El Salvador where he was imprisoned, approval on immigration briefly dipped into negative territory but has since recovered.

One of the bigger concerns for Americans is Trump’s handling of the economy. At the start of the administration, in a Feb. 16-18 Economist poll, he had +1 approval on the economy, but he is now at -8 in the Economist poll and -10.5 in the RCP Average. The latest Economist poll found that while there is overall skepticism about Trump’s economic plan, 34% still said they thought they would be better off financially in a year, while only 27% said they expect to be worse off.

The most concerning issue is inflation, however, where Trump has -22 net approval, with only 38.6% approving and 60.6% disapproving. This concern stems from the Trump tariffs, which could exacerbate inflation. Before the April 2 Liberation Day announcements, the Federal Reserve estimated that inflation could increase by 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points, back up to around 3%, from the 2.3% reported in April. So far, however, inflation has remained depressed, with April’s inflation reading being the lowest since February 2021.

Overall, Trump has triggered a renewed sense of belief in the United States’ future. In the RCP Average on the direction of the country, 43.7% say they think the U.S. is headed in the right direction. This is the third-highest reading RCP has recorded since it began tracking at the start of the Obama presidency, bested only by 43.8% in April 2021, when pandemic concerns were beginning to recede, and 45.8% in June 2009, during the summer of Obama’s first term.