Trump Trade War Growing Increasingly Unpopular

Ever since President Trump began commenting on politics, even dating back to interviews from 1987, he has voiced concern about other countries taking advantage of the U.S., asking why those nations could benefit from U.S. defense while paying nothing in return. This theme has carried throughout his life as a politician as well, with tariffs and trade being among the primary focuses of his time in office. While most Americans supported tariffs on potential adversaries such as China, Trump’s latest announcements about tariffs on allies face skepticism.

Over the first month of the latest Trump term, he has made various threats to place tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, Canada, and now the European Union. Additionally, Trump said that on April 2, the U.S. will put “reciprocal tariffs” on goods from other countries that impose tariffs and other trade barriers on U.S. goods. While during his first administration Trump’s trade wars focused primarily on China, he is now taking on the whole world.

In the latest Economist/YouGov poll taken March 9-11, these tariffs proved to be very unpopular. Only 34% supported a 25% tariff on Mexico, while 51% opposed it. The same 25% tariff on Canada was even more unpopular, with only 31% support and 54% opposition.

The opposition to tariffs wasn’t just because they were being placed on allies but because of their effects as well. When asked if raising tariffs helped or hurt the average American, 60% said they hurt, while only 13% said they helped. Even 32% of Republicans said they hurt, while 28% said they helped. The primary way respondents felt the cost of tariffs was through rising prices, with 74% saying raising tariffs would increase prices “a lot” or “slightly” for items they buy.

In previous polls, a tariff on China was popular, however. In an early March Economist/YouGov poll, 48% supported a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, while only 35% opposed it.

While Trump has threatened all of these tariffs, so far only those on Chinese goods have fully gone into effect. Imports from Canada and Mexico that are not compliant with the USMCA, the trade deal with the U.S., Mexico, and Canada that Trump brokered during his first term in office, will also have a 10% tariff placed on them, Trump established in a March 6 executive order.

This week, the trade wars with Canada and the EU escalated as Trump increased tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to 25%. In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced tariffs on  €26 billion worth of goods, including steel, aluminum, textiles, agricultural goods, and bourbon. Canada has also announced retaliatory tariffs on $29.8 billion (Canadian) worth of U.S. goods, including steel, aluminum, and various other items.

Responding to these retaliatory tariffs, Trump threatened to place a 200% tariff on all alcoholic products coming out of EU-represented countries if the EU imposes a 50% tariff on whiskey, which they announced would be put in place on April 1. 

While the stock market has not taken kindly to these tariff announcements, with the S&P 500 now below its pre-election levels, investors and the American people can hope that Trump’s advice from “The Art of the Deal” holds true:

But when people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard. The risk is that you’ll make a bad situation worse, and I certainly don’t recommend this approach to everyone. But my experience is that if you’re fighting for something you believe in—even if it means alienating some people along the way—things usually work out for the best in the end.