Trump's Approval at New Term Low

Since the controversy over the release of the Epstein files started three weeks ago, Trump’s approval has dropped precipitously. While at a new term low, it remains above his first-term average and roughly in line with where Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush were at the start of their second terms.

In the latest poll from this week, Trump had -2 net approval in a Daily Mail poll and -13 net approval in an Economist poll. The RealClearPolitics Average for Trump’s approval falls between those polls, with -7.5 net approval, 45.3% approving, and 52.8% disapproving. The previous low was on April 29, with a net approval of -7.2.

Compared with his first term, Trump is still faring much better. On July 25, 2017, he faced 55.9% disapproval and 39.6% approval. For most of the term, he hovered around -10 net approval, still below his current rating.

Despite being at a term low, Trump still ranks alongside other recent presidents who have secured a second term. On July 24, 2005, Bush had 45.1% approval, and on July 24, 2013, Obama had 45.2% approval, putting Trump at the top with 45.3%. All three approval graphs for their approval averages follow similar trends, with approval starting off high, around 50% to 53%, at the beginning of their second terms, then falling by five to six points during the first few months.

The biggest damper on Trump’s approval in recent weeks has been the Epstein case. In the Economist/YouGov poll, when asked about Trump’s handling of the Epstein investigation, only 22% approved, while 56% disapproved. Even conservatives were split, with only 44% approving and 32% disapproving. The overwhelming majority, 81%, said the government should release all documents related to Epstein. Only 5% said they should not.

Significant concerns also remain around inflation, with only 38.7% approving and 60% disapproving of Trump’s handling of the issue. The June consumer price index report contained some concerning numbers, with inflation increasing by 2.7% from the previous year. This was above the May report, which showed a 2.4% increase, indicating that inflation may experience a brief resurgence.

Due to the increase in inflation, the Federal Reserve is poised to keep interest rates at their current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This maintains rates higher for items often purchased with debt, such as student loans, cars, and houses. Elevated rates also exacerbate the national debt, which is financed at these higher rates, resulting in increased debt payments and further swelling the U.S. debt.

Whether further disclosure emerges in the Epstein case and whether upcoming economic reports raise more concerns about the economy will determine whether Trump’s approval continues to decline or rebounds, as it did after the dip in April. If it does not, his approval may start to resemble President Joe Biden’s, which started strong but fell between July and November of his first year and never fully recovered.