Trump’s Approval Rebounds After Shutdown but Stays Negative

During the government shutdown, polling turned sharply against the president. Now that the shutdown has ended and the country is heading into the holiday season, Trump’s approval remains negative but is improving from its November lows.

In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken from Nov. 7-12, right before the lockdown ended on Nov. 13, Trump’s net approval was -22, with only 38% approving and 60% disapproving. In the latest poll, taken Dec. 3-8, his net approval improved to -16.

Similarly, his approval in the RealClearPolitics Average has improved from the lowest point of his term, which was -13.1 on Nov. 22, to -9 on Dec. 10. Approval rating polls typically lag major events by one to two weeks, which may be the reason that his approval rating bottomed out after the shutdown ended and has only begun to recover over the last week.

Biden’s approval followed a similar pattern in the summer and fall of 2021. After dipping into the negatives during the Afghanistan withdrawal in August 2021, it fell to -12 around Thanksgiving. It continued to slip into the new year, and with the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation rising to 9%, his approval dropped to a term-long low of -20.7, with only 36.8% approving in July 2022.

In 2021, the president’s negative approval rating also carried over into the generic congressional ballot. In early December 2021, Republicans led by about 3 points. Though that lead did not hold until Election Day, and the parties were essentially tied from August through early November, Republicans ultimately won the House and the generic congressional vote by 2.8 points. The generic congressional ballot now looks similarly difficult for Republicans, with Democrats leading by 3.7 points.

Historically, the party that holds the presidency rarely retains control of the House in midterm elections. Since the 1982 midterms, the party holding the presidency has only retained the House once, in 2002, when President George W. Bush and Republicans benefited from national unity following 9/11 and the response to Al-Qaeda.

Betting markets also give a 73% chance that Democrats will take back the House in 2026.

If Trump aims to significantly improve his standing before the midterms, he must strengthen his approval ratings on the economy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On immigration, crime, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, he is performing relatively well, with net approval ratings of -3, -1.8, and +4, respectively. However, despite inflation at only 2.7% year over year and ongoing U.S.-mediated negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war, his net approval on inflation is -27.3, and his handling of the Russia-Ukraine war stands at -21.3.