Tuesday's Election Results: Trouble Ahead for Republicans?

On Tuesday, the Republican-backed Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin lost to the Democrat-backed candidate, and in two House races in Florida, Republicans held strong Republican seats but by much smaller margins than they won in November 2024. While some might interpret these declines in support for Republicans as a rebuke of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, a better explanation is the shift in the Republican electorate, which has become the party with a higher percentage of low-propensity voters.

Tuesday night’s 10-point loss by Republican-backed Brad Schimel to Democrat-backed Susan Crawford is especially notable given that Trump carried the state just six months ago by 0.9 points. The result has sparked speculation that Democrats may now push legal challenges before the Wisconsin Supreme Court on issues such as redrawing congressional maps, changing voting laws, and addressing abortion access, and with Crawford, the court might be favorable to their pleas.

In Florida’s 1st District, former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s seat, Republican Jimmy Patronis won by 14.6 points, while Gaetz carried the district by 32 points in November. Similarly, in Florida’s 6th District, former National Security Adviser Michael Waltz’s seat, Republican Randy Fine won by just 14 points, compared to Waltz’s 33-point margin in 2024.

In all of these elections, Republican support dropped by 11 to 18 points compared with the 2024 results. This could be viewed as a condemnation of Republicans and the Trump administration.

That does not seem to explain the entirety of the steep decline in Republican turnout, however. Trump’s job approval is just barely negative, with 47.7% approving and 49.9% disapproving, according to the RealClearPolitics Average. While this is down from a peak of a positive 5-6 point net approval at the start of his administration in January, it still pales in comparison to President Joe Biden’s job approval at the end of his term, which stood at negative 18.1 points. The Democratic Party is also viewed very unfavorably, with 59% of respondents finding the party unfavorable and 31.4% viewing it favorably.

Alternatively, a few other explanations better account for why Republicans underperformed on Tuesday. In Florida, one critical difference between the 2024 elections and Tuesday’s races was that the Republicans in 2024 were multi-term incumbents. When Waltz first won the seat in 2018, he won by a similar margin to Fine, 12.6 points.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race illustrates another factor behind weaker Republican turnout: low-propensity voters. Low-propensity voters are voters who lean toward one party or candidate but are less likely to vote due to apathy and competing priorities. These voters were the reason pollsters misread the 2016 election, as many failed to account for a new bloc of low-propensity voters who had not previously turned out but did for Trump.

The clearest example of this is in Madison, Wisconsin, where turnout was 80% of what it was in 2024, compared to 70% turnout statewide. As the state capital and home to Wisconsin’s largest university, Madison has a higher proportion of highly educated, upper-class voters, demographics associated with high-propensity voting. Differences in turnout in liberal strongholds like Madison compared to the rest of the state can shift a toss-up swing state like Wisconsin into strong Democratic territory.

Turnout was also significantly lower in the Florida elections. In the 6th District, 424,000 people voted in November, compared to only 193,000 on Tuesday. In the 1st District, 169,000 voted Tuesday, compared to 414,000 in November.

This means that while Republicans underperformed on Tuesday, all is not lost for the GOP in more typical midterm or presidential elections when overall turnout is higher and more low-propensity voters participate. However, for Republicans to succeed going forward, they must ensure that the low-propensity voters who turned out for Trump in the last three presidential elections remain engaged with the party after he is no longer on the ballot.