Vance Holds Stronger Early Primary Position Than Trump Did in 2024

In hindsight, President Trump’s victory in the 2024 Republican primary appears inevitable, but there was a point when Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed to have real momentum and a credible chance of defeating him. Looking ahead to 2028, even three years before the general election, polls indicate that Vice President JD Vance is positioned even more strongly than Trump was in the 2024 primary cycle.

Looking back at 2023 polling for the Republican primary, Trump led DeSantis by only 12.8 points on Feb. 25 in the RealClearPolitics Average. Until late March, this relatively tight contest between Trump and DeSantis held, and Nikki Haley trailed with only single-digit support.

However, after March 30, 2023, when a Manhattan grand jury indicted Donald Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records – charges of which he was later found guilty – he rose significantly in the polls. On March 29, just before the indictment, he led by 16.8 points, and one month later, on April 29, he led by 28.3 points. After that, he never fell below a 30-point lead against DeSantis or Haley.

Looking to 2028, Vance has an even larger lead than Trump did post-indictment. In the latest RCP Average, he leads by 37.8 points, with 48.8% support, followed by Donald Trump Jr. at 11%, Marco Rubio at 9.3%, and DeSantis at 9%. In every poll included in the RCP Average, even if all undecided voters were added to the next-best-performing candidate, that candidate would still trail Vance.

Among attendees in Phoenix at last week’s AmFest, a political conference of the conservative organization Turning Point Action formerly headed by Charlie Kirk, Vance’s position atop the field was even more evident. In a straw poll conducted at the event, 84.2% said they want Vance to be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, while only 4.8% and 2.9% said the same of Rubio and DeSantis, respectively. In a straw poll conducted at the same conference in 2023, Trump garnered 82.6% support, less than Vance received in the latest poll, even though Trump was only one month from the start of the primary elections, while Vance is still two years out.

This lead is compounded by comments from Rubio, who said in an interview with Vanity Fair, “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.” This makes challenging Vance even more difficult, given that one of his top potential competitors would endorse him.

There is still some doubt in betting markets about Vance, which currently gives him only a 48% chance to win the Republican nomination, followed by Rubio at 12%.

On the Democratic side, the primary is far more fluid. Depending on the poll, California Gov. Gavin Newsom or former Vice President Kamala Harris holds the lead. The RCP Average has Newsom ahead at 23.6% to Harris’ 21.4%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 11% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 7.7%.

In betting markets, Newsom is currently close to Vance at 35%, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 10% and Harris at 7%.