Young Americans, Especially Men, Fuel GOP Gains

Each year, Pew Research conducts a party affiliation poll to determine where the country is moving politically. The latest poll found that U.S. adults as a whole have shifted to the right since 2020, a shift driven largely by young men.

The poll, conducted from Feb. 5 to June 18 with 5,022 U.S. adults, found that the percentage of people who are Republican or lean Republican increased from 42% in 2021 to 46% in 2025. The percentage who are Democrat or lean Democrat declined from 52% to 45%. The 2025 numbers closely reflect Donald Trump’s 2024 win, in which he won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points.

This shift occurred across both genders. The percentage of men identifying with the Republican Party rose from 48% to 53%, while women increased from 37% to 41%. The most notable change was among men identifying as Democrats, which fell from 47% to 39%.

Young people also experienced a significant shift. In 2023, 38% of adults ages 18 to 29 identified as Republican; by 2025, that figure had risen to 43%. Another age group showing notable movement was those aged 50 to 64, who increased from 47% to 51% Republican.

The most dramatic change was at the intersection of age and gender. Among men ages 18 to 29, the percentage leaning Republican jumped from 36% in 2023 to 52% in 2025, a 16-point swing. Women in the same demographic shifted 7 points to the right, from 30% to 37% Republican.

The only other comparable shift in cross-sectional data was among men 65 and older, whose Republican affiliation decreased from 59% to 54%. Most of those became independents, however, as Democratic identification rose by only 1 point.

Beyond the sharp change among young men, the data also show a broader trend. In 2023, each generation was more conservative than the next younger generation, and this applied to both men and women. In the 2025 data, men ages 18 to 29 were slightly more conservative than men ages 30 to 49, and men 50 and older were only 2 to 3 points more conservative than those under 50. In 2023, men 65 and older were 10-20 points more conservative than those under 29.

Whether these changes in party preference might remain permanent, especially among young people, is still unclear. The election featured Trump and other conservatives making direct appeals to young men via podcasts and livestreams, but Democratic politicians have increased their presence on these platforms since the election.

These appearances have included former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Ro Khanna on podcasts hosted by comedians such as Theo Von and Andrew Schulz. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has also launched his own podcast, which has featured conservatives like Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon, and has appeared on “The Shawn Ryan Show.” These podcasts had previously hosted Trump, Sen. J.D. Vance, and other conservatives seeking to present their platforms to younger audiences. Given that 20-somethings are in their relative political infancy, Democrats might still have the opportunity to win back a few younger voters.