Young Voters Sour on Trump as Economic Woes Mount

Donald Trump’s job approval rating continues to be underwater – particularly with a cohort of young voters who had high hopes for him after four years of drift under Joe Biden. And new data suggests that it’s the economy dragging down the president’s popularity more than the administration’s sudden Iran blitzkrieg.

First, some background. A Washington Post-ABC News poll (done by Ipsos) released days before the Feb. 24 State of the Union Address showed that 70% of voting-age Americans under the age of 30 disapprove of Trump’s performance in office.

The same survey revealed that when it comes to the 2026 midterms, there is a conspicuous enthusiasm gap between young Kamala Harris voters and those who voted for Trump in 2024. Some three-fourths of under-30 Harris voters said they are primed to support Democratic congressional candidates in November, whilst only half of 18-29 pro-MAGA voters say they will definitely support GOP candidates.

A recent focus group done in Charlotte, N.C., organized by Harvard’s Institute of Politics, fleshed out those numbers.

“I don’t know why we are fighting [in Iran] if we have never been attacked,” a 26-year-old local document clerk named Joshua Byers told his fellow Generation Z participants. “I just don’t understand why.”

The session was moderated by John Della Volpe, director of polling for the I.O.P., and the researcher who tracks youth voting attitudes more closely than any pollster in the country. “Gen Z grew up in the shadow of the Iraq War,” says Della Volpe. “They know how it ended – and they’re skeptical when they hear politicians say this time it will be different.”

But foreign policy concerns do not exist in a vacuum. There’s a context that has less to do with Israel or Palestine and more to do with the state of the U.S. economy. A critical mass of young voters feel stuck. After the focus group ended, young Mr. Byers indicated to a Washington Post reporter that he believes the Trump administration’s focus on foreign policy has come at the expense of his vow to tackle high prices and the tribulations of working-class Americans. “I feel betrayed,” Byers said.

Various surveys also underscore the point that the Trump administration’s problems (at least for now) are mostly about the economy:

• A Washington Post poll released last Thursday showed that slightly more Americans (42%) want the aerial attacks on Iran to continue than want them stopped (40%). This represents a significant shift from when they began. So that issue is probably not hurting him – at least not yet.

• Likewise, reports that the “MAGA base” is deeply divided on Iran would seem to describe the movement’s intelligencia, and not rank-and-file GOP voters. Republicans expressed 85% support for Trump on Valentine’s Day – and 84% on the eve of St. Patrick’s Day.

• Finally, everyday Americans simply aren’t following the Iran war nearly as closely as they are the economy. On Monday, CNN data analyst Harry Enten phrased it this way: “There’s been a lot going on over the past few weeks, but so far there’s kind of been kind of little bit of a collective shrug by the American public.” By way of illustration, he highlighted a survey showing that 45% of Americans “care a lot” about the situation in Iran – compared to 84% who care a lot about the economy.

Of course, as CNN anchorwoman Sara Sidner pointed out to Enten, the war in Iran certainly has the potential to impact the economy – and is already doing so with gasoline prices.

So where does that leave us? The Irish have a saying, “All roads lead to Dublin.” Well, when it comes to American voters, almost all roads lead to pocketbook issues, as politicians invariably learn, sometimes to their regret.